Samsunspor
vs
Amed
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Samsunspor 1–2 Amed
The model makes it 25% Samsunspor, 23% draw, 52% Amed — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.45, Amed 2.29.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Amed are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 7 games; Amed are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Samsunspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Trabzonspor.
- Amed are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Gençlerbirliği S.K..
- Last 4 meetings: Samsunspor 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 February 2020, ended Samsunspor 3–0 Amed.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Samsunspor vs Amed
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Samsunspor vs Amed
Samsunspor
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
Amed
- D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amed scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Samsunspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
Amed
Chance to finish in the top four · 52% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Amed
- 19 February 2020Samsunspor 3–0 Amed2. Lig
- 9 October 2019Amed 0–0 Samsunspor2. Lig
- 20 January 2019Amed 3–2 Samsunspor2. Lig
- 2 September 2018Samsunspor 1–0 Amed2. Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Amed
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban72
- D. Sabia40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Samsunspor carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.87 for Amed. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Samsunspor and 2.29 for Amed. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Samsunspor rate 0.72 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amed rate 1.22 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Samsunspor a 0% chance of the title and Amed 9.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Samsunspor against 2.29 for Amed. Samsunspor's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/1.22 for Amed.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Samsunspor at home · Amed away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SamsunsporAmed
Samsunspor are 16th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Amed are 2nd after 7 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Samsunspor 7, Amed 7.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Amed have let in 1 there.
Amed score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Samsunspor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Samsunspor
- at Başakşehir1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 17%
- vs Konyaspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Galatasaray21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 12%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
Amed
- vs Eyüpspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 76%
- at Galatasaray7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 26%
- vs Rizespor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 62%
- at Gaziantep FK28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.