SV Wehen
vs
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SV Wehen 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
The model makes it 52% SV Wehen, 27% draw, 21% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: SV Wehen 1.63, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0.84.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to SV Wehen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SV Wehen are 18th on 8 points from 8 games; SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 19th on 8 points from 8 games — 3. Liga.
- SV Wehen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to FC Ingolstadt 04.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Waldhof Mannheim.
- Last 6 meetings: SV Wehen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 March 2019, ended SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–3 SV Wehen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Wehen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Wehen at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Wehen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SV Wehen
- W4-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0411 October 2026
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
- L0-1Waldhof Mannheim13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Hansa Rostock5 September 2026
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
- D1-1Verl15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse12 September 2026
- W1-0Hoffenheim II6 September 2026
What these results say
- SV Wehen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Wehen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SV Wehen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SV Wehen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 13 March 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–3 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 25 September 2018SV Wehen 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 10 March 2018SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–3 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 23 September 2017SV Wehen 5–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 6 May 2017SV Wehen 0–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 2 December 2016SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
The two sides
SV Wehen carry a model rating of 6.17 against 5.99 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for SV Wehen and 0.84 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Wehen rate 0.47 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach rate 0.38 and 2.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Wehen a 0.1% chance of the title and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Wehen the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SV Wehen against 0.84 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. SV Wehen's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.13 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Wehen at home · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SV Wehen 8, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 8.
SV Wehen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 0 there.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); SV Wehen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SV Wehen
- at Verl31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Havelse7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at FC Saarbrücken22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- vs FC Augsburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 8%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
- at Hansa Rostock7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 16%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.