Fenerbahçe
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–0 Alanyaspor
The model makes it 55% Fenerbahçe, 25% draw, 20% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.40, Alanyaspor 0.99.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 6th on 10 points from 6 games; Alanyaspor are 5th on 11 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Fenerbahçe have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 8-0 win at home to Eyüpspor.
- Alanyaspor are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win away to Çorum FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Fenerbahçe 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Alanyaspor 2–3 Fenerbahçe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
Alanyaspor
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 |
| 5 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
- 18 January 2026Alanyaspor 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 September 2025Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 9 February 2025Alanyaspor 0–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 30 August 2024Fenerbahçe 3–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 11 February 2024Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 24 September 2023Alanyaspor 0–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi6 goals1 assist
- M. Greenwood4 goals2 assists
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.69 for Alanyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.99 for Alanyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.36 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alanyaspor rate 0.76 and 1.06.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alanyaspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 25.6% chance of the title and Alanyaspor 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 0.99 for Alanyaspor. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.36/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.06 for Alanyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Alanyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Fenerbahçe 6, Alanyaspor 6.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Alanyaspor have let in 0 there.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- vs Slavia Praha20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- at Galatasaray26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Göztepe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 62%
Alanyaspor
- vs Kocaelispor23 Oct · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.2 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- vs Trabzonspor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
- at Kasımpaşa22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.