Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Galatasaray
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Galatasaray
The model makes it 23% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 26% draw, 51% Galatasaray — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.12, Galatasaray 2.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 13th on 7 points from 6 games; Galatasaray are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Başakşehir.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Trabzonspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Galatasaray 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Galatasaray 0–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
Galatasaray
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
- W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray
- 22 April 2026Galatasaray 0–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
- 18 April 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 22 November 2025Galatasaray 3–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 22 February 2023Galatasaray 2–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 9 January 2021Galatasaray 6–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Galatasaray
- V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
- Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gençlerbirliği S.K. carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.94 for Galatasaray. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 2.22 for Galatasaray. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.63 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Galatasaray rate 1.26 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 0% chance of the title and Galatasaray 24.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 2.22 for Galatasaray. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/1.07 for Galatasaray.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home · Galatasaray away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6, Galatasaray 6.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Galatasaray have let in 1 there.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Gençlerbirliği S.K. have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- at Konyaspor25 Oct · Süper Ligwin 27%
- vs Alanyaspor2 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
- at Beşiktaş8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 17%
- vs Gaziantep FK21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 36%
Galatasaray
- at Lille21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 26%
- vs Fenerbahçe26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 40%
- at Konyaspor30 Oct · Süper Ligwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.