Amed
vs
Konyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Amed 2–1 Konyaspor
The model makes it 55% Amed, 25% draw, 20% Konyaspor — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Amed 2.42, Konyaspor 1.01.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Amed are top on 13 points from 6 games; Konyaspor are 15th on 4 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Amed are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Beşiktaş.
- Konyaspor have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Kasımpaşa.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Amed vs Konyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Amed vs Konyaspor
Amed
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
Konyaspor
- D0-0away to Kasımpaşa18 September 2026
- W1-0Trabzonspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK5 September 2026
- L1-2Kocaelispor29 August 2026
- L2-4away to Fenerbahçe22 August 2026
What these results say
- Amed scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
- Konyaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Amed and Konyaspor
Amed
- G. Orban7 goals2 assists
- D. Sabia3 goals
Konyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Amed carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.56 for Konyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Amed and 1.01 for Konyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amed rate 1.21 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Konyaspor rate 0.67 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amed a 18.2% chance of the title and Konyaspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Amed against 1.01 for Konyaspor. Amed's attack/defence rating is 1.21/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.2 for Konyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Amed at home · Konyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Amed 6, Konyaspor 6.
Amed score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Konyaspor have let in 1 there.
Konyaspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Amed have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Amed
- at Samsunspor24 Oct · Süper Ligwin 46%
- vs Eyüpspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 64%
- at Galatasaray7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- vs Rizespor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
Konyaspor
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.25 Oct · Süper Ligwin 43%
- vs Galatasaray30 Oct · Süper Ligwin 26%
- at Samsunspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Beşiktaş22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.