Eyüpspor
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa
The model makes it 26% Eyüpspor, 29% draw, 45% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Eyüpspor 0.98, Kasımpaşa 1.44.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Kasımpaşa are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Eyüpspor are bottom on 3 points from 7 games; Kasımpaşa are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Eyüpspor are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Göztepe.
- Kasımpaşa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Galatasaray.
- Last 4 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Kasımpaşa 1–0 Eyüpspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kasımpaşa at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
Eyüpspor
- L0-4Göztepe12 October 2026
- L0-8away to Fenerbahçe20 September 2026
- L0-2Rizespor12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Çorum FK6 September 2026
- W2-1Alanyaspor30 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
What these results say
- Eyüpspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eyüpspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eyüpspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 3 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Eyüpspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 86% today
Kasımpaşa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
- 15 March 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 20 October 2025Eyüpspor 2–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 10 May 2025Eyüpspor 0–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 13 December 2024Kasımpaşa 2–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa
Eyüpspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Eyüpspor carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.63 for Kasımpaşa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Eyüpspor and 1.44 for Kasımpaşa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eyüpspor rate 0.54 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kasımpaşa rate 0.69 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eyüpspor a 0% chance of the title and Kasımpaşa 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Eyüpspor against 1.44 for Kasımpaşa. Eyüpspor's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.1 for Kasımpaşa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Eyüpspor at home · Kasımpaşa away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EyüpsporKasımpaşa
Eyüpspor are 18th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Kasımpaşa are 9th after 7 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Eyüpspor 7, Kasımpaşa 7.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Eyüpspor have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eyüpspor
- at Amed1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 9%
- vs Kocaelispor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Trabzonspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 8%
- vs Başakşehir29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 18%
Kasımpaşa
- vs Beşiktaş1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- at Gaziantep FK6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Alanyaspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Rizespor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.