AVS
vs
Tondela
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: AVS 2–1 Tondela
The model makes it 43% AVS, 27% draw, 30% Tondela — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AVS 1.60, Tondela 1.24.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. AVS's rating is built from 10 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Tondela's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AVS are 11th on 13 points from 10 games; Tondela are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vizela.
- Tondela have won 3 of their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sporting CP B.
- Last 5 meetings: Tondela 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 October 2026, ended AVS 2–1 Tondela.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- AVS45%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- Tondela29%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AVS vs Tondela
Has the model earned this number?
AVS at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AVS vs Tondela
AVS
Segunda Liga
- D2-2Vizela6 November 2026
- L1-2away to União de Leiria31 October 2026
- W2-1Tondela25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to Sporting CP B8 November 2026
- W3-2Felgueiras 19321 November 2026
- L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AVS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AVS had three goals or more.
- Tondela scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AVS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Tondela | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AVS vs Tondela
- 25 October 2026AVS 2–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 21 March 2026Tondela 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 2 November 2025AVS 2–2 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 May 2024AVS 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 14 January 2024Tondela 3–2 AVSSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: AVS and Tondela
AVS
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Tondela
GoalsAssists
- Cascavel10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AVS the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AVS against 1.24 for Tondela. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.47 for Tondela.
How the model reaches 43% for AVS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AVS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AVS's ratings change nothing and Tondela's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AVS's ratings44%±0
- Tondela's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AVS at home · Tondela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: AVS 10, Tondela 10.
AVS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tondela have let in 2 there.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); AVS have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AVS
- vs Leixoes28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 52%
- at Benfica B2 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- at Amarante8 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Portimonense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 48%
- at Academica20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Tondela
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- vs Penafiel5 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Benfica B20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Feirense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.