Final · 21 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction

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Our model says: Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Boca Juniors

The model makes it 36% Atletico Mineiro, 31% draw, 33% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 1.14, Boca Juniors 1.08.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Atletico Mineiro and Boca Juniors are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Atletico Mineiro have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Atletico Torque.
  • Boca Juniors are without a win in 4 CONMEBOL Libertadores games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Universidad Catolica.
  • Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 20 July 2021, ended Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Boca Juniors.

Chance to go through

CONMEBOL Sudamericana Final — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Atletico Mineiro37%
  • Level after ninety minutes30%
  • Boca Juniors33%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

Other predictions for 21 Nov

All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Boca Juniors

46%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atletico Mineiro win Draw Boca Juniors win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Atletico Mineiro first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Mineiro at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Boca Juniors

Atletico Mineiro

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

  • L0-2away to Atletico Torque21 October 2026
  • W3-0Atletico Torque14 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Santos9 September 2026
  • D2-2RB Bragantino19 August 2026
  • W1-0away to RB Bragantino12 August 2026

Boca Juniors

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia7 November 2026
  • W1-0River Plate1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Independiente25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Vasco da Gama21 October 2026
  • W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Boca Juniors won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Boca Juniors

  • 20 July 2021Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 13 July 2021Boca Juniors 0–0 Atletico MineiroCONMEBOL Libertadores

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Boca Juniors

Atletico Mineiro

GoalsAssists

  • Bernard50
  • T. Cuello34
  • Reinier31

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Atletico Mineiro Boca Juniors
0.83 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.02
0.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.93
1.14 Model expected goals (this match) 1.08

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 1.08 for Boca Juniors. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.93 for Boca Juniors.

How the model reaches 36% for Atletico Mineiro to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Mineiro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Atletico Mineiro's ratings take away 3 points and Boca Juniors's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Atletico Mineiro's ratings39%−3
  5. Boca Juniors's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Atletico MineiroBoca Juniors
34Matches33
14W 8D 12LRecord17W 12D 4L
44 1.3 per gameGoals scored48 1.5 per game
40 1.2 per gameGoals conceded26 0.8 per game
8 of 34Clean sheets16 of 33
11 of 34Failed to score3 of 33
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
58 1.7 per gameYellow cards73 2.2 per game
4Red cards0
4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-3-3 13×

Atletico Mineiro at home · Boca Juniors away

17Played16
10W 5D 2LRecord7W 6D 3L
27–18Goals for – against25–17
5 of 17Clean sheets6 of 16

League matches only, this season — Atletico Mineiro in the Serie A, Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Atletico Mineiro 34 in the Serie A, Boca Juniors 33 in the Liga Profesional Argentina.

Atletico Mineiro scored 49731010
Boca Juniors conceded 833532
Boca Juniors scored 3999313
Atletico Mineiro conceded 5483813

Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 13 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Atletico Mineiro

Boca Juniors

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.