Estrela vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estrela 2-1 SC Braga.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Estrela, 28% draw, 38% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estrela vs SC Braga
Line-ups
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 93B. SouzaM
- 80AlissonF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 22David GriloG
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 19Joan JordánM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 49R. MutebaF
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 6Vitor CarvalhoD
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 77Gabri MartínezM
- 20M. DorgelesF
- 10Pau VictorF
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 19J. WindF
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 12Tiago SáG
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 37A. BarišićD
Form going into Estrela vs SC Braga
Estrela
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
SC Braga
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs SC Braga
- 10 September 2026Estrela 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2026SC Braga 2–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2026Estrela 3–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 19 January 2025Estrela 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 11 August 2024SC Braga 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 2 March 2024SC Braga 3–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and SC Braga
Estrela
- L. Antonetti4 goals
- I. Stoica3 goals1 assists
- A. Marcus2 goals1 assists
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.