10 September 2026, 19:15 UTC

Estrela vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result

Amadora
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Estrela 2-1 SC Braga.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Estrela, 28% draw, 38% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SC Braga at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estrela95%Draw5%SC Braga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Gabriel Martínez Aguileraassist: Pau Victor
Stefan Lekovic
27'
⚽Ianis Stoicaassist: Eddy Doué
45'
⚽Ianis Stoicaassist: Abraham Marcus
56'
61'
🔁Fra Navarroout: Tommy Marqués
61'
🔁Gabriel Martínez Aguileraout: Diogo Martins Travassos
61'
🔁Mario Dorgelesout: Gabriel Silva
🔁Santiago Serraout: Joan Jordan
75'
🔁Ianis Stoicaout: Beni Souza
75'
76'
🔁Pau Victorout: Jonas Wind
76'
🔁Demir Ege Tıknazout: Diego Henrique
77'
João Moutinho
Luan Patrick
85'
🔁Leandro Antonettiout: René Mitongo
87'
🔁Lovro Zvonarekout: Kevin Hoog Jansson
90'

Match stats — Estrela vs SC Braga

37%Possession63%
9Shots9
5On target4
5Corners9

Line-ups

Estrela 4-2-3-1
  • 24Léo LinckG
  • 21M. ScholzeD
  • 30Patrick LuanD
  • 5S. LekovićD
  • 55Rafa SoaresD
  • 39Eddy DoueM
  • 78Santiago SerraM
  • 99A. MarcusM
  • 14L. ZvonarekM
  • 10I. StoicaM
  • 37L. AntonettiF
Substitutes
  • 93B. SouzaM
  • 80AlissonF
  • 4Bernardo SchappoD
  • 17Jefferson EncadaD
  • 22David GriloG
  • 6K. Höög JanssonM
  • 19Joan JordánM
  • 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
  • 49R. MutebaF
Coach: Pepa
SC Braga 3-4-3
  • 31Bernardo FontesG
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoD
  • 22Sergio BarciaD
  • 2Víctor GómezM
  • 34E. TıknazM
  • 8João MoutinhoM
  • 77Gabri MartínezM
  • 20M. DorgelesF
  • 10Pau VictorF
  • 9Fran NavarroF
Substitutes
  • 19J. WindF
  • 7Diogo TravassosD
  • 12Tiago SáG
  • 50Diego RodriguesM
  • 17J. MiloševićF
  • 16Tomás MarquésM
  • 11Gabriel SilvaF
  • 78João CarvalhoG
  • 37A. BarišićD
Coach: Carlos Vicens

Form going into Estrela vs SC Braga

Estrela

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
  • D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026

SC Braga

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
  • W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Austria Vienna27 August 2026
  • W2-0Austria Vienna20 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 August 2026

What these results say

  • Estrela went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Estrela scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Estrela conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • SC Braga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for SC Braga had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Estrela92431417-310
9SC Braga9324911-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estrela vs SC Braga

  • 16 May 2026SC Braga 2–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 3 January 2026Estrela 3–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 January 2025Estrela 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 11 August 2024SC Braga 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 March 2024SC Braga 3–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga

The full Estrela vs SC Braga record →

Leading scorers: Estrela and SC Braga

Estrela

GoalsAssists

  • I. Stoica42
  • A. Marcus41
  • L. Antonetti41

SC Braga

GoalsAssists

  • Pau Victor41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Estrela beat SC Braga 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for SC Braga at 38% and given a win for Estrela 34%. The goals: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera 5' for SC Braga, Ianis Stoica 45' for Estrela, Ianis Stoica 56' for Estrela.

How the call on Estrela v SC Braga has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is SC Braga's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Estrela win34%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. SC Braga win38%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.