10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time1 – 1

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% PSV Eindhoven, 26% draw, 20% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PSV Eindhoven6%Draw92%Shakhtar Donetsk2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Vinícius Tobias
45+1'
⚽Gleiker Mendozaassist: Isaque
47'
Gleiker Mendoza
⚽Sergiño Destassist: Armando Obispo
48'
55'
Pedro Henrique
Armando Obispo
56'
63'
Valeriy Bondar
Ruben van Bommel
65'
66'
🔁Kauã Eliasout: Lassina Traore
66'
🔁Gleiker Mendozaout: Newerton
🔁Filip Kostićout: Ryan Flamingo
68'
Sergiño Dest
81'
🔁Ricardo Pepiout: Sven Mijnans
83'
87'
A. Turan
89'
🔁Alissonout: Lucas Ferreira
89'
🔁Isaqueout: Dmytro Kryskiv
89'
Dmytro Kryskiv
90+1'
Marlon Gomes

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk

54%Possession46%
10Shots8
2On target2
3Corners3

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-3-3
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 18F. KostićD
  • 20G. TilM
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 5I. PerišićF
  • 9R. PepiF
  • 7R. van BommelF
Substitutes
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 27D. ManF
  • 38F. MeriénD
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 1N. OlijG
Coach: P. Bosz
Shakhtar Donetsk 4-4-2
  • 31D. RiznykG
  • 17Vinícius TobiasD
  • 5V. BondarD
  • 22M. MatvienkoD
  • 13PedrinhoD
  • 30Alisson SantanaM
  • 6Marlon GomesM
  • 27O. OcheretkoM
  • 77G. MendozaM
  • 9Kauã EliasF
  • 14IsaqueF
Substitutes
  • 23K. FesyunG
  • 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
  • 18A. GhramD
  • 20O. KaravaevM
  • 8D. KryskivM
  • 49Luca MeirellesF
  • 37Lucas FerreiraM
  • 29E. NazarynaM
  • 11NewerttonM
Coach: A. Turan

Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
  • W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
  • W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
  • D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk

No earlier matches on record this season.

What these results say

  • PSV Eindhoven went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18PSV Eindhoven31112204
17Shakhtar Donetsk311143+14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for PSV Eindhoven at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gleiker Mendoza 45+1' for Shakhtar Donetsk, Sergiño Dest 48' for PSV Eindhoven.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.