PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% PSV Eindhoven, 26% draw, 20% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk
PSV Eindhoven
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table