FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% FSV Mainz 05, 27% draw, 30% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FSV Mainz 05 at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Line-ups
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 6K. SanoM
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 16S. BellD
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 2Elias BaumM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 26K. KosugiM
- 20R. DōanM
- 42C. UzunM
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 35M. PimpongF
- 5OtávioD
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 27M. GötzeM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 34N. CollinsD
- 22T. ChandlerD
- 31L. ArrhovM
- 29A. AmaimouniF
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
All competitions we cover
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions we cover
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 22 March 2026FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 21 December 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 26 January 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz50
- A. Caci33
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib51
- J. Burkardt31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eintracht Frankfurt won 3–1 at FSV Mainz 05. The model had leaned towards a win for FSV Mainz 05 at 43% and given a win for Eintracht Frankfurt 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Can Yilmaz Uzun 9' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Jonathan Burkardt 45+1' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Can Yilmaz Uzun 60' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Phillip Tietz 89' for FSV Mainz 05.
How the call on FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is FSV Mainz 05's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- FSV Mainz 05 win43%▼ −3
- Draw27%=
- Eintracht Frankfurt win30%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.