FSV Mainz 05
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% FSV Mainz 05, 27% draw, 39% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.60, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.84.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Line-ups
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 6K. SanoM
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 16S. BellD
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 2Elias BaumM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 26K. KosugiM
- 20R. DōanM
- 42C. UzunM
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 35M. PimpongF
- 5OtávioD
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 27M. GötzeM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 34N. CollinsD
- 22T. ChandlerD
- 31L. ArrhovM
- 29A. AmaimouniF
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 12 September 2026FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 22 March 2026FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 21 December 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 26 January 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
- P. Tietz3 goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Y. Ebnoutalib3 goals1 assists
- J. Burkardt2 goals1 assists
- C. Uzun2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.60 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.84 for Eintracht Frankfurt; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Can Yilmaz Uzun 9' (Eintracht Frankfurt), Jonathan Burkardt 45' (Eintracht Frankfurt), Can Yilmaz Uzun 60' (Eintracht Frankfurt), Phillip Tietz 89' (FSV Mainz 05).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.84 for Eintracht Frankfurt. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.85 for Eintracht Frankfurt.