1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% 1. FC Köln, 29% draw, 29% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Köln at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
Line-ups
- 1M. SchwäbeG
- 17A. Castro-MontesD
- 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
- 24L. LochoshviliD
- 14G. MensahD
- 30M. BülterM
- 5T. KraußM
- 6E. SkhiriM
- 47M. MooreM
- 37L. MainaM
- 27T. DallingaF
- 9R. AcheF
- 10S. El MalaM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 28S. SebulonsenD
- 3B. SosaD
- 29J. ThielmannM
- 20R. ZielerG
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 15L. ReisM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 4N. StarkD
- 8M. WeiserD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 29Salim Amani MusahF
- 26C. IttenF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
- W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026
Werder Bremen
All competitions we cover
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
- 12 April 20261. FC Köln 3–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 29 November 2025Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 16 February 20241. FC Köln 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 23 September 2023Werder Bremen 2–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 20 May 2023Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Köln at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Linton Maina 11' for 1. FC Köln, Niclas Füllkrug 69' for Werder Bremen.
How the call on 1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is 1. FC Köln's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- 1. FC Köln win42%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Werder Bremen win29%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.