Regular Season - 3 · 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Full time1 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% 1. FC Köln, 30% draw, 31% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.38, Werder Bremen 1.11.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

51%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%0-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Köln at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln4%Draw93%Werder Bremen3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Thijs Dallinga (pen)
8'
⚽Linton Mainaassist: Ellyes Skhiri
11'
🔁Thijs Dallingaout: Ragnar Ache
64'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
65'
🔁Alessio Castro-Montesout: Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen
65'
69'
⚽Niclas Füllkrug
70'
🔁Ludovit Reisout: Dariusz Stalmach
72'
Olivier Deman
🔁Mikey Mooreout: Said El Mala
74'
81'
🔁Arthur Augusto De Matos Soaresout: Mick Schmetgens
81'
🔁Niclas Füllkrugout: Cédric Itten
83'
🔁Youri Regeerout: Mitchell Weiser
83'
🔁Eren Dinkciout: Paul Erevbenagie
Gideon Mensah
86'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Paul Okon-Engstler
90'
Paul Okon-Engstler
90+2'

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

47%Possession53%
15Shots14
6On target5
8Corners5

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 4-5-1
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 30M. BülterM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 27T. DallingaF
Substitutes
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 10S. El MalaM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 20R. ZielerG
Coach: René Wagner
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 13ArthurD
  • 5A. PieperD
  • 32M. FriedlD
  • 2O. DemanD
  • 15L. ReisM
  • 44Y. RegeerM
  • 18E. DinkçiM
  • 20Chuky San JoséM
  • 17M. GrüllM
  • 10N. FüllkrugF
Substitutes
  • 33Mick SchmetgensD
  • 23Dariusz StalmachM
  • 4N. StarkD
  • 8M. WeiserD
  • 3O. WójcikD
  • 30A. SchlagerG
  • 29Salim Amani MusahF
  • 26C. IttenF
  • 38P. ErevbenagieF
Coach: D. Thioune

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln

  • L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Werder Bremen

  • W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
121. FC Köln311157-24
10Werder Bremen311156-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

  • 12 September 20261. FC Köln 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 12 April 20261. FC Köln 3–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 29 November 2025Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 16 February 20241. FC Köln 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 23 September 2023Werder Bremen 2–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 20 May 2023Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Werder Bremen

  • N. Füllkrug2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.38 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.11 for Werder Bremen; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Linton Maina 11' (1. FC Köln), Niclas Füllkrug 69' (Werder Bremen).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Köln the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.11 for Werder Bremen. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.92 for Werder Bremen.