FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Augsburg, 27% draw, 33% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Augsburg at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 40Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 20G. DouéD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 14P. SchickF
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 18 April 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 6 December 2025FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 26 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 14 December 2024FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch40
- R. Fellhauer30
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Augsburg at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Kofane 18' for Bayer Leverkusen, Michael Gregoritsch 50' for FC Augsburg, Michael Gregoritsch 55' for FC Augsburg, Patrik Schick 89' for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the call on FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is FC Augsburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- FC Augsburg win40%▲ +4
- Draw27%=
- Bayer Leverkusen win33%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.