FC Augsburg
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% FC Augsburg, 27% draw, 34% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.75, Bayer Leverkusen 1.53.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Augsburg at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 40Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 20G. DouéD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 14P. SchickF
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 September 2026FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 April 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 6 December 2025FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 26 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 14 December 2024FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
Bayer Leverkusen
- P. Schick3 goals1 assists
- Christian Kofane2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.53 for Bayer Leverkusen; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Christian Kofane 18' (Bayer Leverkusen), Michael Gregoritsch 50' (FC Augsburg), Michael Gregoritsch 55' (FC Augsburg), Patrik Schick 89' (Bayer Leverkusen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Augsburg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 1.53 for Bayer Leverkusen. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.31/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.82 for Bayer Leverkusen.