SC Freiburg
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% SC Freiburg, 27% draw, 21% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.95, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Line-ups
- 1M. BackhausG
- 29P. TreuD
- 28M. GinterD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 42K. GotoF
- 32V. GrifoM
- 30C. GünterD
- 9L. HölerF
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 17L. KüblerD
- 21F. MüllerG
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 27Berkay YilmazD
- 1M. NicolasG
- 29J. ScallyD
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 4K. DiksD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 9F. HonoratM
- 16P. SanderM
- 7K. StögerM
- 25R. HackM
- 38H. BolinF
- 11T. KleindienstF
- 18S. MachinoF
- 36W. MohyaM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 34M. NguefackM
- 26L. UllrichD
- 3I. LidbergF
- 5J. LeszczyńskiD
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 33D. BatzG
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 12 September 2026SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 22 February 2026SC Freiburg 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 12 April 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 30 November 2024SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 30 March 2024Borussia Monchengladbach 0–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
- Y. Suzuki3 goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- H. Bolin2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.95 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.86 for Borussia Mönchengladbach; the game produced 5 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Yannick Engelhardt 23' (SC Freiburg), Igor Matanovic 29' (SC Freiburg), Igor Matanovic 77' (SC Freiburg), Yannick Engelhardt 79' (SC Freiburg), Maximilian Eggestein 86' (SC Freiburg).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 0.86 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.12 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.