SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% SC Freiburg, 29% draw, 26% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Line-ups
- 1M. BackhausG
- 29P. TreuD
- 28M. GinterD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 42K. GotoF
- 32V. GrifoM
- 30C. GünterD
- 9L. HölerF
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 17L. KüblerD
- 21F. MüllerG
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 27Berkay YilmazD
- 1M. NicolasG
- 29J. ScallyD
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 4K. DiksD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 9F. HonoratM
- 16P. SanderM
- 7K. StögerM
- 25R. HackM
- 38H. BolinF
- 11T. KleindienstF
- 18S. MachinoF
- 36W. MohyaM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 34M. NguefackM
- 26L. UllrichD
- 3I. LidbergF
- 5J. LeszczyńskiD
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 33D. BatzG
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
- W4-1Motherwell27 August 2026
- W3-1away to Motherwell20 August 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions we cover
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg won every one of these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 22 February 2026SC Freiburg 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 12 April 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 30 November 2024SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 30 March 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
Borussia Mönchengladbach
GoalsAssists
- J. Scally31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 5–0. The model had made a win for SC Freiburg its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yannick Engelhardt 23' for SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic 29' for SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic 77' for SC Freiburg, Yannick Engelhardt 79' for SC Freiburg, Maximilian Eggestein 86' for SC Freiburg. Sent off: Tim Kleindienst (Borussia Mönchengladbach) 52'.
How the call on SC Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is SC Freiburg's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- SC Freiburg win45%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.