FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% FSV Mainz 05, 24% draw, 48% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 3.57, 4.17 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 5E. MartelM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 16S. BellD
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 8R. AndrichM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 11M. TerrierF
- 23N. TellaF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 5L. BadéD
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
All competitions we cover
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 28 February 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 18 October 2025FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 14 January 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 23 February 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen won 4–3 at FSV Mainz 05. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Robert Andrich 5' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick 9' for Bayer Leverkusen, Anthony Caci 33' for FSV Mainz 05, Anthony Caci 42' for FSV Mainz 05, Jarell Quansah 55' for Bayer Leverkusen, Moussa Diaby 65' for Bayer Leverkusen, Benedict Hollerbach 90+2' for FSV Mainz 05. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.71.
How the call on FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 30% / 26% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 28% / 24% / 48%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- FSV Mainz 05 win28%▼ −2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Bayer Leverkusen win48%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.