FSV Mainz 05
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
The model makes it 30% FSV Mainz 05, 26% draw, 44% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.43, Bayer Leverkusen 2.01.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 28 February 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 18 October 2025FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 14 January 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 23 February 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 30 September 2023FSV Mainz 05 0–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
- P. Tietz4 goals
- S. Becker2 goals3 assists
Bayer Leverkusen
- P. Schick4 goals1 assists
- Christian Kofane2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FSV Mainz 05 carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.11 for Bayer Leverkusen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.01 for Bayer Leverkusen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FSV Mainz 05 rate 0.99 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.32 and 0.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 2.01 for Bayer Leverkusen. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.79 for Bayer Leverkusen.