Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-0 SV Elversberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Union Berlin, 23% draw, 50% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
SV Elversberg at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. RønnowG
- 19J. HabererD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 8R. KhediraM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 30K. ImeriM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 21T. SkarkeF
- 9Livan BurcuF
- 7O. BurkeF
- 6A. KemleinM
- 17D. KöhnD
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 31M. RaabG
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 32M. GrayF
- 20N. KristofG
- 26L. SirchD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 10Noah DarvichM
- 29T. ZimmerschiedM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 6A. CondéM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 42D. MokwaF
- 17F. SchmahlM
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 39William Cole CampbellF
- 28T. BossG
Form going into Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
All competitions we cover
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
SV Elversberg
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Berlin did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
- SV Elversberg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Union Berlin and SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for SV Elversberg at 50% and given a win for Union Berlin 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Livan Burcu 81' for Union Berlin. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.28.
How the call on Union Berlin v SV Elversberg has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 26% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 23% / 50%: the biggest move is SV Elversberg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Union Berlin win27%▼ −1
- Draw23%▼ −3
- SV Elversberg win50%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.