Union Berlin
vs
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Union Berlin 1–2 SV Elversberg
The model makes it 28% Union Berlin, 26% draw, 46% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.50, SV Elversberg 2.26.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Elversberg at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
SV Elversberg
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Berlin did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
- SV Elversberg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Union Berlin and SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
- T. Skarke2 goals
SV Elversberg
- M. Krattenmacher3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union Berlin carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.91 for SV Elversberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Union Berlin and 2.26 for SV Elversberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Berlin rate 0.81 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Elversberg rate 1.13 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Union Berlin against 2.26 for SV Elversberg. Union Berlin's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.01 for SV Elversberg.