10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result

Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
Full time0 – 2

Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB Stuttgart.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% SC Paderborn 07, 28% draw, 43% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfB Stuttgart at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Paderborn 070%Draw1%VfB Stuttgart99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabotassist: Angelo Stiller
Marvin Pieringer
45'
🔁Stefano Marinoout: Steffen Tigges
70'
🔁Marvin Pieringerout: Rayan Philippe
70'
72'
🔁Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabotout: Finn Jeltsch
77'
🔁Ermedin Demirovićout: Dženan Pejčinović
77'
🔁Jamie Lewelingout: Bilal El Khannouss
🔁Laurin Ulrichout: Oliver Batista Meier
80'
83'
⚽Chris Führichassist: Angelo Stiller
🔁Mattes Hansenout: Felix Götze
85'
🔁Tjark Schellerout: Jonah Sticker
85'
85'
🔁Deniz Undavout: Grischa Prömel
85'
🔁Chris Führichout: Leo Sauer

Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

51%Possession49%
24Shots18
6On target8
7Corners5
1.91xG2.45

Goals against chances

SC Paderborn 070 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
VfB Stuttgart2 from 2.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
  • 15N. NollG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 28L. UlrichM
  • 5S. CastañedaM
  • 40G. VidovićM
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 18M. PieringerF
  • 30S. MarinoF
Substitutes
  • 6T. BaackM
  • 7O. Batista MeierM
  • 20F. GötzeD
  • 11S. MichelF
  • 2Ruben MüllerD
  • 9R. PhilippeF
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
  • 27S. TiggesF
Coach: R. Kettemann
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
  • 41D. SeimenG
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 4J. VagnomanM
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 18J. LewelingM
  • 26D. UndavM
  • 9E. DemirovićF
Substitutes
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 47Y. SpaltD
  • 20L. StergiouD
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 22L. AssignonD
Coach: S. Hoeneb

Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

SC Paderborn 07

All competitions we cover

  • W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
  • L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026

VfB Stuttgart

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
  • W3-1Viking9 September 2026
  • W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026

What these results say

  • SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • SC Paderborn 07 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • SC Paderborn 07 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VfB Stuttgart conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for VfB Stuttgart had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13SC Paderborn 079243811-310
8VfB Stuttgart94051515012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

  • 31 January 2023SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
  • 23 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 20 December 2014VfB Stuttgart 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

The full SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart record →

Leading scorers: SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart

SC Paderborn 07

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfB Stuttgart won 2–0 at SC Paderborn 07. The model had made a win for VfB Stuttgart its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot 25' for VfB Stuttgart, Chris Führich 83' for VfB Stuttgart. On expected goals it finished 1.91–2.45.

How the call on SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is VfB Stuttgart's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. SC Paderborn 07 win29%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. VfB Stuttgart win43%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.