10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

FC Augsburg vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result

WWK Arena, Augsburg
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% FC Augsburg, 19% draw, 64% Bayern München — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Augsburg3%Draw89%Bayern München8%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Robin Fellhauer
1'
Chrislain Matsima
42'
Rodrigo Ribeiro
43'
51'
•Luis Díaz
55'
⚽Ismael Saibariassist: Harry Kane
Hennes Behrens
62'
🔁Seol Young-wooout: Anton Kade
62'
⚽Rodrigo Ribeiro
64'
67'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Serge Gnabry
67'
🔁Josip Stanišićout: Nathaniel Brown
🔁Rodrigo Ribeiroout: Mert Kömür
75'
80'
⚽Nathaniel Brownassist: Harry Kane
🔁Arijon Ibrahimovicout: Michael Gregoritsch
82'
🔁Juma Bahout: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
82'
87'
🔁Aleksandar Pavlovićout: Tom Bischof
87'
🔁Luis Díazout: Lennart Karl

Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

30%Possession70%
12Shots30
5On target10
5Corners9
2.45xG5.1

Goals against chances

FC Augsburg2 from 2.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bayern München2 from 5.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
  • 1F. DahmenG
  • 35Abdulay BahD
  • 5C. MatsimaD
  • 2C. BrackelmannD
  • 7Seol Young-WooM
  • 4H. MassengoM
  • 32F. RiederM
  • 16Hennes BehrensM
  • 19R. FellhauerM
  • 21A. IbrahimovićM
  • 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
Substitutes
  • 37T. SchnitzerM
  • 8K. SusoM
  • 6J. GouweleeuwD
  • 11M. GregoritschF
  • 30A. KadeM
  • 14Y. KeitelM
  • 10M. KömürM
  • 22N. LabrovićG
  • 39U. OgunduF
Coach: M. Baum
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 14L. DíazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 23S. BoeyD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 7S. GnabryF
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 39Bara NdiayeM
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 8T. BischofM
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

FC Augsburg

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
  • D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
  • W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026

Bayern München

All competitions we cover

  • W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
  • W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
  • W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
  • D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
  • W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
  • FC Augsburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bayern München won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bayern München scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14FC Augsburg9234202009
1Bayern München9630299+2021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

  • 24 January 2026Bayern München 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • 30 August 2025FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 4 April 2025FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 22 November 2024Bayern München 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • 27 January 2024FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MunichBundesliga

The full FC Augsburg vs Bayern München record →

Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayern München

FC Augsburg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Gregoritsch50

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise63
  • H. Kane48
  • L. Díaz41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Augsburg and Bayern München drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayern München at 64% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Robin Fellhauer 1' for FC Augsburg, Ismael Saibari 55' for Bayern München, Rodrigo Ribeiro 64' for FC Augsburg, Nathaniel Brown 80' for Bayern München. On expected goals it finished 2.45–5.10.

How the call on FC Augsburg v Bayern München has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 21% / 23% / 56% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 17% / 19% / 64%: the biggest move is Bayern München's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. FC Augsburg win17%▼ −4
  2. Draw19%▼ −4
  3. Bayern München win64%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.