FC Augsburg
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Augsburg 1–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 21% FC Augsburg, 23% draw, 56% Bayern München — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.24, Bayern München 2.81.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 56% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayern München
FC Augsburg
- L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Bayern München
- W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
- FC Augsburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bayern München won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bayern München scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München
- 24 January 2026Bayern München 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 30 August 2025FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 4 April 2025FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 22 November 2024Bayern München 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 27 January 2024FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 27 August 2023Bayern Munich 3–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayern München
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
Bayern München
- M. Olise4 goals1 assists
- H. Kane3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Augsburg carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.35 for Bayern München. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for FC Augsburg and 2.81 for Bayern München. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Augsburg rate 1.04 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayern München rate 1.76 and 0.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 2.81 for Bayern München. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.65 for Bayern München.