20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza FC vs Junior Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Fortaleza FC 1-4 Junior.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fortaleza FC, 30% draw, 37% Junior — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Junior at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortaleza FC0%Draw1%Junior99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Jhon Solis
16'
Jhon Solis
17'
19'
⚽J. Pena
Andres Copete
24'
26'
⚽T. Gutierrez (pen)
46'
Francisco Fydriszewski
48'
⚽D. Caicedoassist: Y. Suarez
53'
⚽F. Fydriszewski (pen)
🔁A. Copeteout: D. Ramirez
54'
🔁M. Vazquezout: S. Cuero
54'
60'
🔁F. Fydriszewskiout: G. Paiva
🔁S. Vivasout: J. Garcia
61'
🔁J. Herreraout: F. Pulicastro
61'
⚽Y. Diaz
65'
69'
🔁T. Gutierrezout: Y. Chara
69'
🔁D. Caicedoout: C. Barrios
Sebastián Navarro
80'
🔁S. Navarroout: B. Mejia
80'
83'
🔁F. S. Angel Bernalout: J. Rios
83'
🔁J. Penaout: A. Shmalbach
Santiago Cuero
88'

Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Junior

41%Possession59%
8Shots8
2On target6
2Corners1
0.77xG1.82

Goals against chances

Fortaleza FC1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth
Junior4 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortaleza FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1W. BarlasinaG
  • 16J. CajaresD
  • 5J. Medina ObandoD
  • 6Y. DiazD
  • 2A. CopeteD
  • 14L. PicoM
  • 28S. VivasM
  • 32M. Vazquez
  • 8S. NavarroM
  • 30J. SolisM
  • 9J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 22M. BarraganG
  • 3D. RamirezD
  • 15S. CueroD
  • 13B. MejiaM
  • 25J. GarciaM
  • 19F. PulicastroF
  • 7I. MontanoF
  • 24J. SalasF
  • 27J. SinisterraF
Coach: Diego Arias
Junior 4-4-2
  • 1M. SilveiraG
  • 98J. PenaD
  • 5D. RiveraD
  • 23P. OrtizD
  • 26Y. SuarezD
  • 25D. CaicedoM
  • 80F. S. Angel BernalM
  • 28G. CelisM
  • 88B. CastrillonM
  • 19F. FydriszewskiF
  • 29T. GutierrezF
Substitutes
  • 30J. MartinezG
  • 7H. RiveraM
  • 14J. RiosM
  • 20J. SarmientoM
  • 6D. VillarrealM
  • 38A. ShmalbachM
  • 8Y. CharaM
  • 77C. BarriosF
  • 9G. PaivaF
Coach: Sebastian Viera

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Fortaleza FC181981728-1112
14Junior184772527-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Junior

  • 16 March 2026Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 8 November 2025Fortaleza FC 1–1 JuniorPrimera A
  • 16 May 2025Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 17 August 2024Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 11 February 2024Fortaleza FC 2–0 JuniorPrimera A

Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Junior

Fortaleza FC

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Junior

GoalsAssists

  • L. Muriel163

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.