Fortaleza FC vs Junior Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza FC 1-4 Junior.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Fortaleza FC, 30% draw, 37% Junior — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Junior
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1W. BarlasinaG
- 16J. CajaresD
- 5J. Medina ObandoD
- 6Y. DiazD
- 2A. CopeteD
- 14L. PicoM
- 28S. VivasM
- 32M. Vazquez
- 8S. NavarroM
- 30J. SolisM
- 9J. HerreraF
- 22M. BarraganG
- 3D. RamirezD
- 15S. CueroD
- 13B. MejiaM
- 25J. GarciaM
- 19F. PulicastroF
- 7I. MontanoF
- 24J. SalasF
- 27J. SinisterraF
- 1M. SilveiraG
- 98J. PenaD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 23P. OrtizD
- 26Y. SuarezD
- 25D. CaicedoM
- 80F. S. Angel BernalM
- 28G. CelisM
- 88B. CastrillonM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 29T. GutierrezF
- 30J. MartinezG
- 7H. RiveraM
- 14J. RiosM
- 20J. SarmientoM
- 6D. VillarrealM
- 38A. ShmalbachM
- 8Y. CharaM
- 77C. BarriosF
- 9G. PaivaF
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Junior
Fortaleza FC
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Fe5 September 2026
- L1-2Once Caldas2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chico26 August 2026
Junior
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar13 September 2026
- D3-3Jaguares6 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Fe29 August 2026
- L2-4away to America de Cali26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Fortaleza FC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Junior | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Junior
- 20 September 2026Fortaleza FC 1–4 JuniorPrimera A
- 16 March 2026Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 8 November 2025Fortaleza FC 1–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 16 May 2025Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 17 August 2024Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 11 February 2024Fortaleza FC 2–0 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Junior
Fortaleza FC
- A. Arroyo9 goals4 assists
Junior
- L. Muriel14 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.