1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Racing Club vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Avellaneda
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Racing Club 1-3 Tigre.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Racing Club, 24% draw, 16% Tigre — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Racing Club at 60% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Racing Club0%Draw1%Tigre99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽P. Martinez
M. Kranevitter
23'
26'
⚽M. Garay
N. Colombo
28'
42'
V. Moreno
44'
•I. Russo
🔁G. N. Martirena Torresout: E. Cannavo
46'
🔁A. Telloout: U. Ortegoza
46'
🔁N. Colomboout: M. Di Cesare
46'
51'
⚽I. Russoassist: P. Martinez
🔁M. Miljevicout: D. Vergara
58'
⚽D. Vergaraassist: M. Kranevitter
65'
67'
🔁P. Martinezout: E. Cabrera
🔁L. Diazout: E. Torres
76'
82'
🔁I. Russoout: A. Oviedo
82'
🔁J. Saraleguiout: F. Alvarez
86'
🔁J. Eliasout: G. Requena
86'
🔁J. Lasoout: S. Gonzalez
90'
A. Oviedo
I. Rodriguez
90'

Match stats — Racing Club vs Tigre

64%Possession36%
11Shots11
5On target5
6Corners0
0.58xG0.78

Goals against chances

Racing Club1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tigre3 from 0.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Racing Club 4-3-1-2
  • 25Facundo CambesesG
  • 15Gastón MartirenaD
  • 23Nazareno ColomboD
  • 6Marcos RojoD
  • 19Ignacio RodríguezD
  • 11Matías ZarachoM
  • 5Matías KranevitterM
  • 10Matko MiljevicM
  • 46Alejandro TelloM
  • 9Adrián MartínezF
  • 32Lautaro DíazF
Substitutes
  • 4Ezequiel CannavoD
  • 3Marco Di CesareD
  • 16Ulises OrtegozaM
  • 7Duván VergaraF
  • 22Elías TorresF
  • 30Matías TagliamonteG
  • 43Gonzalo EscuderoD
  • 18PachaD
  • 34Tobías RubioD
Coach: Gustavo Costas
Tigre 4-2-3-1
  • 12Felipe ZenobioG
  • 4Valentín MorenoD
  • 2Joaquín LasoD
  • 20Alan BarrionuevoD
  • 3Nahuel BanegasD
  • 8Martín GarayM
  • 30Jalil EliasM
  • 10Jabes SaraleguiM
  • 28Gonzalo MartínezM
  • 22Santiago LópezM
  • 29Ignacio RussoF
Substitutes
  • 33Elías CabreraM
  • 24Federico ÁlvarezD
  • 19Alfio OviedoF
  • 23Gonzalo RequenaD
  • 27Santiago GonzálezM
  • 26Lautaro MoralesG
  • 17Guillermo SotoD
  • 32Juan VillalbaD
  • 21Sebastián MedinaM
Coach: Diego Dabove

Form going into Racing Club vs Tigre

Racing Club

  • D0-0away to Rosario Central29 July 2026
  • W2-1Gimnasia La Plata24 July 2026

Tigre

  • L0-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Tigre

  • 1 August 2026Racing Club 1–3 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 February 2026Tigre 3–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 December 2025Racing Club 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 August 2025Racing Club 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 12 February 2025Tigre 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 May 2024Tigre 0–4 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Racing Club and Tigre

Racing Club

No leading scorers listed yet.

Tigre

  • I. Russo7 goals3 assists
  • D. Romero7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.