Racing Club vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Racing Club 1-3 Tigre.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Racing Club, 24% draw, 16% Tigre — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Club at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Club vs Tigre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Facundo CambesesG
- 15Gastón MartirenaD
- 23Nazareno ColomboD
- 6Marcos RojoD
- 19Ignacio RodríguezD
- 11Matías ZarachoM
- 5Matías KranevitterM
- 10Matko MiljevicM
- 46Alejandro TelloM
- 9Adrián MartínezF
- 32Lautaro DíazF
- 4Ezequiel CannavoD
- 3Marco Di CesareD
- 16Ulises OrtegozaM
- 7Duván VergaraF
- 22Elías TorresF
- 30Matías TagliamonteG
- 43Gonzalo EscuderoD
- 18PachaD
- 34Tobías RubioD
- 12Felipe ZenobioG
- 4Valentín MorenoD
- 2Joaquín LasoD
- 20Alan BarrionuevoD
- 3Nahuel BanegasD
- 8Martín GarayM
- 30Jalil EliasM
- 10Jabes SaraleguiM
- 28Gonzalo MartínezM
- 22Santiago LópezM
- 29Ignacio RussoF
- 33Elías CabreraM
- 24Federico ÁlvarezD
- 19Alfio OviedoF
- 23Gonzalo RequenaD
- 27Santiago GonzálezM
- 26Lautaro MoralesG
- 17Guillermo SotoD
- 32Juan VillalbaD
- 21Sebastián MedinaM
Form going into Racing Club vs Tigre
Racing Club
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Rosario Central29 July 2026
- W2-1Gimnasia La Plata24 July 2026
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Racing Club | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Tigre
- 2 February 2026Tigre 3–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 December 2025Racing Club 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Racing Club 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2025Tigre 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 May 2024Tigre 0–4 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Racing Club and Tigre
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tigre won 3–1 at Racing Club. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Club at 60% and given a win for Tigre 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: P. Martinez 19' for Tigre, M. Garay 26' for Tigre, I. Russo 51' for Tigre, D. Vergara 65' for Racing Club. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.78.