Fredrikstad
vs
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 51% Fredrikstad, 26% draw, 23% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.58, Kristiansund BK 0.98.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Fredrikstad
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom11 July 2026
Kristiansund BK
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo2 August 2026
- L1-2Start25 July 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF18 July 2026
- L0-3away to Rosenborg12 July 2026
- L1-3away to Valerenga29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 20 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fredrikstad carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.34 for Kristiansund BK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Fredrikstad L-L-L-W-W; Kristiansund BK L-L-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Fredrikstad and 0.98 for Kristiansund BK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fredrikstad rate 0.57 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kristiansund BK rate 0.52 and 1.47.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fredrikstad the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 0.98 for Kristiansund BK. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.47 for Kristiansund BK.