Kalmar FF
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 48% Kalmar FF, 25% draw, 27% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.75, Hammarby FF 1.24.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kalmar FF
- L2-3away to IFK Goteborg9 August 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken1 August 2026
- W2-1Mjallby AIF25 July 2026
- D2-2Malmo FF20 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hammarby FF12 July 2026
Hammarby FF
- W3-0BK Hacken9 August 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Elfsborg5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kalmar FF | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Kalmar FF
- C. Rosenquist6 goals1 assists
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham8 goals3 assists
- V. Lind6 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kalmar FF carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.52 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Kalmar FF L-D-W-D-L; Hammarby FF W-W-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Kalmar FF and 1.24 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalmar FF rate 0.62 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.76 and 1.49.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hammarby FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kalmar FF a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 0.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalmar FF the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kalmar FF against 1.24 for Hammarby FF. Kalmar FF's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.49 for Hammarby FF.