Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 19% draw, 15% Sandefjord — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sarpsborg 08 FF at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87Leander ØyG
- 32Eirik WichneD
- 12Claus NiyukuriD
- 2Marius LodeD
- 21Anders HiimD
- 10Sondre SörliM
- 8Sander ChristiansenM
- 6Aimar SherM
- 77Olaus SkarsemM
- 11Daniel KarlsbakkF
- 33Andreas HansenF
- 20Peter ReinhardsenD
- 22Victor Emanuel HalvorsenM
- 15Michael OpokuM
- 7Camil MmaeeM
- 17Noa WilliamsM
- 1Jacob PrytsG
- 50Magnus Mevik EidalD
- 56Mads OlsenM
- 18Bop GuèyeM
- 30Elias HadayaG
- 4Fredrik Carson PedersenD
- 16Hakon KrogelienD
- 8Tobias BorkeeietD
- 44Xander LambrixD
- 3Vetle Walle EgeliD
- 7Evangelos PatoulidisM
- 14Edvard PettersenM
- 6Sander Risan MörkM
- 27Jakob Maslo DunsbyM
- 9Oscar KapskarmoF
- 5Gustav HøjbjergD
- 17Foster ApetorgborF
- 24Sebastian Holm MathisenF
- 21Jakob SwiftM
- 1Alf GrønnebergG
- 2Martin HellanD
- 18Mathias SauerM
- 19Bendik BerntsenF
- 32Daniel SkaarudF
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
Sarpsborg 08 FF
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
Sandefjord
All competitions we cover
- L0-1KFUM Oslo7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Fredrikstad1 August 2026
- L0-3Bodo/Glimt26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Viking18 July 2026
What these results say
- Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sandefjord did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sandefjord conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sandefjord failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
- 22 March 2026Sandefjord 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 14 September 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 26 July 2025Sandefjord 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 7 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 SandefjordNM Cupen
- 4 August 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Sandefjord
GoalsAssists
- E. Patoulidis83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sandefjord won 2–1 at Sarpsborg 08 FF. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarpsborg 08 FF at 66% and given a win for Sandefjord 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: O. Kapskarmo 29' for Sandefjord, D. Karlsbakk 37' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, F. Apetorgbor 57' for Sandefjord. On expected goals it finished 2.34–1.78.