Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Sandefjord
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 68% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 17% draw, 15% Sandefjord — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.66, Sandefjord 1.19.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
- W1-0Viking12 July 2026
Sandefjord
- L0-1KFUM Oslo7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Fredrikstad1 August 2026
- L0-3Bodo/Glimt26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Viking18 July 2026
- D2-2Ham-Kam12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.31 for Sandefjord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sarpsborg 08 FF W-D-W-D-L; Sandefjord D-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.66 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.19 for Sandefjord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.76 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sandefjord rate 0.62 and 1.85.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.19 for Sandefjord. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.85 for Sandefjord.