16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Molde vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Aker Stadion, Molde
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Molde 3-2 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Molde, 21% draw, 17% Tromso — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Molde at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Molde97%Draw3%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
🔁J. Haugaardout: O. Lauvli
M. Lovik
35'
⚽E. Hestad (pen)
41'
46'
🔁L. O. Larsenout: Ieltsin Camoes
S. Granaas
50'
53'
⚽H. Larsenassist: T. Nyhammer
⚽O. Spiten-Nysaeterassist: J. Abdullai
55'
J. Abdullai
60'
70'
🔁I. Dahlqvistout: S. Innvaer
🔁D. Dagaout: V. Bender
74'
🔁J. Abdullaiout: T. Kone-Doherty
75'
🔁M. Lovikout: S. Kabini
75'
84'
H. Larsen
85'
🔁T. Nyhammerout: D. Braut
85'
🔁L. Hienout: C. Oyvann
M. Linnes
87'
⚽T. Kone-Doherty
90+2'
🔁M. Linnesout: E. Haugan
90+4'
🔁O. Spiten-Nysaeterout: C. Zady
90+5'
90+8'
⚽Ieltsin Camoesassist: S. Innvaer

Match stats — Molde vs Tromso

55%Possession45%
14Shots8
5On target3
3Corners2
2.54xG0.6

Goals against chances

Molde3 from 2.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tromso2 from 0.60 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Molde
  • 22Albert PosiadałaG
  • 25Martin LinnesD
  • 4Sivert Sira HansenD
  • 33Birk RisaD
  • 8Mathias LøvikD
  • 10Emil BreivikM
  • 30Daniel DagaM
  • 5Eirik HestadM
  • 23Sondre Milian GranaasM
  • 21Oskar Spiten-NysæterM
  • 9Jalal AbdullaiF
Substitutes
  • 28Viktor BenderM
  • 26Samukelo KabiniD
  • 24Trent Kone DohertyF
  • 19Eirik HauganD
  • 11Caleb Zady SeryF
  • 12Peder Hoel LervikG
  • 45Noah Ljøen ByeD
  • 17Mats Møller DæhliM
  • 44Igor Fabian GosikF
Coach: Sindre Tjelmeland
Tromso
  • 1Jakob HaugaardG
  • 17Isak DahlqvistD
  • 30Isak VadebuD
  • 21Leon HienD
  • 3Mathias TonnessenD
  • 29Alexander WarnerydD
  • 5David EdvardssonM
  • 11Ruben JenssenM
  • 7Lars Olden LarsenM
  • 10Troy NyhammerF
  • 22Heine Asen LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 12Ole LauvliG
  • 20Ieltsin CamõesF
  • 37Sander InnværM
  • 25Casper ÖyvannD
  • 9Daniel BrautF
  • 27Mads MikkelsenM
  • 8Jesper Andreas GrundtM
  • 19Aleksander Lilletun ElvebuM
  • 15Viktor EkblomF
Coach: Jorgen Vik

Form going into Molde vs Tromso

Molde

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
  • D3-3Sarpsborg 08 FF2 August 2026
  • W4-2away to KFUM Oslo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Brann18 July 2026

Tromso

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj13 August 2026
  • W5-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj6 August 2026
  • W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Hradec Králové30 July 2026
  • L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Molde scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Molde conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
  • Tromso scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Tromso had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Molde2613586444+2044
6Tromso2611784340+340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Tromso

  • 10 May 2026Tromso 2–0 MoldeEliteserien
  • 24 August 2025Molde 2–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 5 July 2025Tromso 1–0 MoldeEliteserien
  • 28 September 2024Molde 5–3 TromsoEliteserien
  • 28 June 2024Tromso 0–2 MoldeEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Tromso

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu152
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Tromso

GoalsAssists

  • H. Larsen104
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Molde beat Tromso 3–2. The model had made a win for Molde its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Hestad (penalty) 41' for Molde, H. Larsen 53' for Tromso, O. Spiten-Nysaeter 55' for Molde, T. Kone-Doherty 90+2' for Molde, Ieltsin Camoes 90+8' for Tromso. On expected goals it finished 2.54–0.60.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.