Molde
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 60% Molde, 22% draw, 18% Tromso — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Molde 2.00, Tromso 1.03.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Molde
- D3-3Sarpsborg 08 FF2 August 2026
- W4-2away to KFUM Oslo26 July 2026
- L1-2Brann18 July 2026
- D2-2away to Aalesund11 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord30 May 2026
Tromso
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
- W4-0Valerenga11 July 2026
- D0-0away to KFUM Oslo29 May 2026
- D1-1Aalesund25 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | +15 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Molde
- E. Breivik7 goals5 assists
- E. Hestad6 goals2 assists
Tromso
- H. Larsen7 goals2 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Molde carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.5 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Molde W-D-L-W-D; Tromso D-D-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Molde and 1.03 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Molde rate 0.78 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.68 and 1.36.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tromso, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Molde a 0% chance of the title and Tromso 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Molde the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Molde against 1.03 for Tromso. Molde's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.36 for Tromso.