Aalesund vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 5-5 Valerenga.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Aalesund, 20% draw, 28% Valerenga — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Aalesund at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 10 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Valerenga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 14Uba CharlesD
- 4Simen HaramD
- 22Emil EngqvistD
- 3Ólafur GuðmundssonD
- 16Jakob Nyland ÖrsahlD
- 21Mathias ChristensenM
- 18Elias Kristoffersen HagenM
- 6Hakon Butli HammerM
- 27Marcus Haagensen ReedF
- 15Endre Hjertager OsenbrochF
- 7Kristoffer NessøM
- 39Kristian LonebuF
- 2Marius AndresenD
- 45Philip Sandvik AuklandD
- 20Ivan DjantouF
- 26Tor Erik LarsenG
- 38Tobias LeikangerM
- 10Mathias KristensenM
- 17Elias Heggland MyrlidF
- 1Oscar HedvallG
- 55Sebastian JarlD
- 4Aaron Kiil OlsenD
- 37Ivan NäsbergD
- 2Kolbeinn FinnssonD
- 7Mohamed OfkirM
- 24Petter StrandM
- 10Carl LangeM
- 77Lucas HarenM
- 17Mathias GrundetjernF
- 9Gabriel RajkovicF
- 3Hakon SjatilD
- 28Magnus WestergaardM
- 5Kevin TshiembeD
- 90Ole Christian SaeterF
- 11Ghayas ZahidM
- 13Sander Åke Andreas LønningG
- 6Vegar Eggen HedenstadD
- 15Odin Thiago HolmM
- 49Abdoulie JattaD
Form going into Aalesund vs Valerenga
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Valerenga
- 16 July 2026Valerenga 6–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 24 September 2024Valerenga 4–1 Aalesund1. Division
- 11 May 2024Aalesund 0–2 Valerenga1. Division
- 17 September 2023Valerenga 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 10 April 2023Aalesund 0–1 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Valerenga
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aalesund and Valerenga drew 5–5. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalesund at 52% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Christensen (penalty) 3' for Aalesund, M. Grundetjern 14' for Valerenga, M. Reed 16' for Aalesund, E. Hagen 29' for Aalesund, L. Haren 33' for Valerenga, J. Orsahl 35' for Aalesund, M. Christensen 56' for Aalesund, P. Strand 63' for Valerenga, M. Grundetjern 70' for Valerenga, C. Lange 85' for Valerenga. On expected goals it finished 2.11–3.19.