Nantes
vs
Reims
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nantes 2–1 Reims
The model makes it 40% Nantes, 29% draw, 31% Reims — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nantes 1.53, Reims 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nantes vs Reims
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nantes at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nantes vs Reims
Nantes
- W2-1away to Boulogne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
Reims
- D1-1Montpellier18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Nancy11 September 2026
- D2-2Guingamp5 September 2026
- W4-1away to RED Star FC 9329 August 2026
- W3-1Annecy24 August 2026
What these results say
- Nantes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nantes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reims went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Reims scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Reims conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 3 | Reims | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Reims
- 2 February 2025Reims 1–2 NantesLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Nantes 1–2 ReimsLigue 1
- 28 January 2024Reims 0–0 NantesLigue 1
- 5 November 2023Nantes 0–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 2 April 2023Nantes 0–3 ReimsLigue 1
- 6 November 2022Reims 1–0 NantesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nantes and Reims
Nantes
- W. Younoussa2 goals1 assists
Reims
- Y. Fofana6 goals
- Y. El Kachati2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nantes carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.6 for Reims. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Nantes and 1.23 for Reims. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nantes rate 0.73 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Reims rate 0.86 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Reims, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nantes a 0% chance of the title and Reims 5.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nantes against 1.23 for Reims. Nantes's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.42 for Reims.