Nantes vs Reims Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Nantes 0-0 Reims.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Nantes, 27% draw, 31% Reims — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Nantes at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nantes vs Reims
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30P. CarlgrenG
- 4S. SowD
- 5L. PerrinD
- 98K. AmianD
- 13F. DoucouréM
- 23W. YounoussaM
- 28I. SissokoM
- 26R. HachemM
- 8J. LepenantF
- 27T. RobinetF
- 37I. GanagoF
- 44B. PierretM
- 12K. CorredorF
- 18F. CentonzeD
- 1M. DupéG
- 24F. GuilbertD
- 7A. JoujouF
- 19Louis LerouxM
- 74Loan MerrifieldF
- 17D. AssoumaniM
- 1T. HülsmannG
- 21J. MambukuD
- 28N. AhouononD
- 22S. KottoD
- 27D. GuindoD
- 6T. LeoniM
- 61C. KouranfalM
- 46seydou dembeleM
- 8Y. FofanaM
- 9M. DaramyM
- 99S. SoumanoF
- 18Sergio AkiemeD
- 76J. CelestinD
- 7T. DiarrassoubaF
- 10Y. El KachatiF
- 30J. PatrickM
- 77Quentin ParisF
- 19A. GadouF
- 12E. OmeragicG
- 5John OtomewoD
Form going into Nantes vs Reims
Nantes
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Boulogne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
Reims
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Montpellier18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Nancy11 September 2026
- D2-2Guingamp5 September 2026
- W4-1away to RED Star FC 9329 August 2026
- W3-1Annecy24 August 2026
What these results say
- Nantes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nantes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reims went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Reims scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Reims conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Reims
- 2 February 2025Reims 1–2 NantesLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Nantes 1–2 ReimsLigue 1
- 28 January 2024Reims 0–0 NantesLigue 1
- 5 November 2023Nantes 0–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 2 April 2023Nantes 0–3 ReimsLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nantes and Reims
Nantes
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Reims
GoalsAssists
- Y. Fofana112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nantes and Reims drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nantes at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.98–0.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nantes a 33.3% chance to finish in the top four: 38.2% after a win, 31.9% after a draw, 27.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 31.9%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
For Reims the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 66.6% going in: 73.5% after a win, 64.7% after a draw, 62.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.7%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nantes v Reims has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Nantes's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Nantes win42%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Reims win31%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.