Guingamp
vs
Annecy
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Guingamp 2-1 Annecy.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Guingamp, 29% draw, 31% Annecy — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.56, Annecy 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Guingamp vs Annecy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guingamp at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs Annecy
Guingamp
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026
- W1-0Boulogne14 August 2026
Annecy
- W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
- D1-1Metz29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Reims24 August 2026
- W2-0Rodez14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Guingamp | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Annecy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs Annecy
- 3 April 2026Annecy 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
- 5 December 2025Guingamp 0–3 AnnecyLigue 2
- 10 January 2025Annecy 1–4 GuingampLigue 2
- 20 September 2024Guingamp 2–2 AnnecyLigue 2
- 3 February 2024Guingamp 1–4 AnnecyLigue 2
- 5 August 2023Annecy 1–4 GuingampLigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and Annecy
Guingamp
- D. Gomis2 goals1 assists
- S. Kielt2 goals
Annecy
- T. Rambaud2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.42 for Annecy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Guingamp and 1.25 for Annecy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.65 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Annecy rate 0.63 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Annecy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0% chance of the title and Annecy 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.25 for Annecy. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.48 for Annecy.