Fortuna Köln
vs
Stuttgart II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Köln 1–0 Stuttgart II
The model makes it 41% Fortuna Köln, 30% draw, 29% Stuttgart II — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortuna Köln 1.31, Stuttgart II 1.00.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortuna Köln are 15th on 10 points from 9 games; Stuttgart II are 11th on 11 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Köln have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
- Stuttgart II are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Hoffenheim II.
- Last 4 meetings: Stuttgart II 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 March 2016, ended Fortuna Köln 1–3 Stuttgart II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Köln at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
Fortuna Köln
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
- D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
Stuttgart II
- W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- D1-1away to SV Meppen10 October 2026
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
- L1-2Preußen Münster13 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Stuttgart II.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortuna Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Stuttgart II
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
- 12 March 2016Fortuna Köln 1–3 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 27 September 2015Stuttgart II 3–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 4 April 2015Fortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 28 September 2014Stuttgart II 3–1 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Köln carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.18 for Stuttgart II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Fortuna Köln and 1.00 for Stuttgart II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Köln rate 0.37 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stuttgart II rate 0.56 and 2.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stuttgart II, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Köln a 0% chance of the title and Stuttgart II 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Köln the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fortuna Köln against 1.00 for Stuttgart II. Fortuna Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.18 for Stuttgart II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Köln at home · Stuttgart II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Köln 9, Stuttgart II 9.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Köln
- at Preußen Münster25 Oct · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs SV Meppen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 40%
- at FC Viktoria Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 20%
Stuttgart II
- vs Alemannia Aachen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at MSV Duisburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 16%
- vs Verl8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0422 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at Waldhof Mannheim28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.