FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 Rot-Weiß Essen
The model makes it 33% FC Ingolstadt 04, 30% draw, 37% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20, Rot-Weiß Essen 1.31.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are 14th on 8 points from 7 games; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
- Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Hansa Rostock.
- Last 6 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
- L0-3Alemannia Aachen4 September 2026
- W2-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach29 August 2026
Rot-Weiß Essen
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Viktoria Köln5 September 2026
- D0-0away to SV Wehen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- 11 April 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 8 November 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 22 February 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 21 September 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 28 April 2024Rot-weiss Essen 4–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 25 November 2023FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Rot-weiss Essen3. Liga
The two sides
FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.41 for Rot-Weiß Essen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.31 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.50 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 0.4% chance of the title and Rot-Weiß Essen 13.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 1.31 for Rot-Weiß Essen. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.48 for Rot-Weiß Essen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · Rot-Weiß Essen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 7, Rot-Weiß Essen 7.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Ingolstadt 04
- vs MSV Duisburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Havelse31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Rot-Weiß Essen
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 51%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.