Alemannia Aachen
vs
Hansa Rostock
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Alemannia Aachen 2–1 Hansa Rostock
The model makes it 46% Alemannia Aachen, 27% draw, 27% Hansa Rostock — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 2.00, Hansa Rostock 1.27.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Alemannia Aachen are 7th on 11 points from 7 games; Hansa Rostock are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Alemannia Aachen have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
- Hansa Rostock have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Alemannia Aachen 1–1 Hansa Rostock.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alemannia Aachen at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock
Alemannia Aachen
- W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg12 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Ingolstadt 044 September 2026
- L0-3SV Meppen29 August 2026
Hansa Rostock
- D1-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen20 September 2026
- W3-2Stuttgart II16 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Viktoria Köln11 September 2026
- D1-1SV Wehen5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hansa Rostock conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hansa Rostock scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Hansa Rostock.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock
- 2 May 2026Alemannia Aachen 1–1 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 7 December 2025Hansa Rostock 2–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 16 March 2025Alemannia Aachen 2–1 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 19 October 2024Hansa Rostock 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 12 April 2013Alemannia Aachen 3–4 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 20 October 2012Hansa Rostock 1–0 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alemannia Aachen carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.33 for Hansa Rostock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.27 for Hansa Rostock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alemannia Aachen rate 0.63 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hansa Rostock rate 0.68 and 1.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hansa Rostock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alemannia Aachen a 10.8% chance of the title and Hansa Rostock 5.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alemannia Aachen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen against 1.27 for Hansa Rostock. Alemannia Aachen's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.95 for Hansa Rostock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alemannia Aachen at home · Hansa Rostock away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Alemannia Aachen 7, Hansa Rostock 7.
Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Hansa Rostock have let in 3 there.
Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Alemannia Aachen
- at Stuttgart II24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 40%
- vs Preußen Münster31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
Hansa Rostock
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 40%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.