20 September 2026, 23:10 UTC

Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Deportes Tolima 1-1 America de Cali.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Deportes Tolima, 33% draw, 32% America de Cali — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes Tolima at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportes Tolima4%Draw94%America de Cali2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Junior Hernández
12'
21'
Yani Quintero
⚽S. Aguayo (pen)
22'
26'
⚽Y. Guzman
37'
Jhon Murillo
41'
Rafael Carrascal
42'
Josen Escobar
46'
🔁T. Angelout: M. Mina
🔁E. Valenciaout: L. Sandoval
60'
61'
Juan Montoya
63'
🔁J. Escobarout: J. Cavadia
63'
🔁Y. Guzmanout: J. Palacios
🔁A. Parra Osorioout: J. Hurtado
70'
🔁C. Arrietaout: S. Guzman
80'
🔁S. Aguayoout: K. Florez
80'
89'
🔁out: E. Tortolero
Luis Sandoval
90+4'
Kelvin Florez
90+2'
•Kelvin Florez
90+2'

Match stats — Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali

67%Possession33%
28Shots5
8On target1
9Corners2
2.3xG0.32

Goals against chances

Deportes Tolima1 from 2.30 xGless than the chances were worth
America de Cali1 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
  • 1Neto VolpiG
  • 28E. LopezD
  • 3J. AnguloD
  • 2A. AnguloD
  • 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
  • 17C. ArrietaM
  • 14H. E. Martinez YepezM
  • 24A. Parra OsorioM
  • 8E. ValenciaM
  • 20J. HernandezM
  • 15S. AguayoF
Substitutes
  • 13M. OrtegaG
  • 71Y. OsorioD
  • 33J. MosqueraD
  • 25S. CabezasD
  • 32S. GuzmanM
  • 16V. ReyesM
  • 9L. SandovalF
  • 7J. HurtadoF
  • 18K. FlorezF
Coach: Sebastian Oliveros
America de Cali 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. MontoyaG
  • 18Y. QuinteroD
  • 24C. TovarD
  • 3D. RoseroD
  • 30O. BertelD
  • 15R. CarrascalM
  • 5J. EscobarM
  • 23L. QuinonesM
  • 10Y. GuzmanM
  • 7J. MurilloM
  • 21T. AngelF
Substitutes
  • 37A. ToroG
  • 22N. HernandezD
  • 2M. TorresD
  • 14M. MinaD
  • 77E. TortoleroM
  • 6J. CavadiaM
  • 31J. Aponza
  • 9D. ValenciaF
  • 88J. PalaciosF
Coach: David Gonzalez

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Deportes Tolima187562321+226
2America de Cali1810623112+1936

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali

  • 15 March 2026America de Cali 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 9 August 2025America de Cali 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 12 June 2025America de Cali 1–3 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 7 June 2025Deportes Tolima 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
  • 24 February 2025Deportes Tolima 0–0 America de CaliPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and America de Cali

Deportes Tolima

GoalsAssists

  • A. Parra95

America de Cali

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Guzmán206

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.