Maghreb Fès
vs
Raja Casablanca
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Maghreb Fès 1–0 Raja Casablanca
The model makes it 37% Maghreb Fès, 32% draw, 31% Raja Casablanca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Maghreb Fès 1.10, Raja Casablanca 0.93.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Maghreb Fès are top on 6 points from 2 games; Raja Casablanca are 8th on 3 points from 1 game — Botola Pro.
- Last 6 meetings: Raja Casablanca 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 6 May 2026, ended Maghreb Fès 0–2 Raja Casablanca.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 37% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca
Maghreb Fès
- W2-1away to Hassania Agadir3 October 2026
- W2-1CR Khemis Zemamra27 September 2026
Raja Casablanca
- W1-0CR Khemis Zemamra3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Raja Casablanca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca
- 6 May 2026Maghreb Fès 0–2 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 3 October 2025Raja Casablanca 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 28 February 2025Raja Casablanca 0–0 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 25 October 2024Maghreb Fès 0–0 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 14 February 2024Raja Casablanca 1–0 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 17 September 2023Maghreb Fès 1–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maghreb Fès carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.49 for Raja Casablanca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.93 for Raja Casablanca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maghreb Fès rate 0.66 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raja Casablanca rate 0.65 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Maghreb Fès against 0.93 for Raja Casablanca. Maghreb Fès's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.35 for Raja Casablanca.
Next match, by difficulty
Maghreb Fès
Raja Casablanca
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.