Paide
vs
Rapid Vienna
The model makes it 32% Paide, 25% draw, 43% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Paide 1.43, Rapid Vienna 1.69.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Paide
No earlier matches on record this season.
Rapid Vienna
- W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Paide
No league goals recorded yet.
Rapid Vienna
- P. Dahl1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paide carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.39 for Rapid Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Paide D-W-W-D; Rapid Vienna W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Paide and 1.69 for Rapid Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paide rate 0.55 in attack and 2.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid Vienna rate 0.54 and 1.38.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Paide against 1.69 for Rapid Vienna. Paide's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.38 for Rapid Vienna.