Hapoel Haifa
vs
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva
The model makes it 44% Hapoel Haifa, 27% draw, 29% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.90, Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.33.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Haifa at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
- L1-2away to Beitar Jerusalem19 September 2026
- W3-1Bnei Sakhnin14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 August 2026
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- L2-4Hapoel Jerusalem19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
- L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bnei Sakhnin29 August 2026
- W2-1Ironi Kiryat Shmona22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Haifa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Haifa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Petah Tikva had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
- A. Turgeman2 goals1 assists
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- J. Cortés2 goals1 assists
- S. Owusu2 goals1 assists
- L. Hazan2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Haifa carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.17 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 1.33 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Haifa rate 0.51 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Petah Tikva rate 0.58 and 2.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 1.33 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.32 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.