11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Referee: Alessandro Dudic
Full time3 – 0

Final score: FC Vaduz 3-0 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Vaduz, 24% draw, 30% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Vaduz at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Vaduz99%Draw1%FC Basel 18930%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marcel Monsbergerassist: Lutfi Dalipi
26'
⚽Marcel Monsbergerassist: Dominik Schwizer
36'
Denis Simani
48'
Juan Cabrera
50'
51'
Kazeem Olaigbe
Dominik Schwizer
52'
55'
🔁Kazeem Olaigbeout: Aaron Malouda
⚽Lutfi Dalipiassist: Milos Cocic
68'
🔁Milos Cocicout: Dejan Djokic
70'
71'
🔁Jonas harderout: Ludwig Thorell
71'
🔁Žan Celarout: giacomo koloto
71'
🔁Moussa Cisseout: Keigo Tsunemoto
85'
🔁Abemly Meto Silu Metinhoout: Akpe Victory
🔁Juan Cabreraout: Mattia walker
86'
🔁Lutfi Dalipiout: Malik Sawadogo
90'
🔁Dominik Schwizerout: mischa beeli
90'
🔁Marcel Monsbergerout: Niklas Lang
90'

Match stats — FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

49%Possession51%
20Shots12
7On target1
1Corners5
3.11xG0.92

Goals against chances

FC Vaduz3 from 3.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Basel 18930 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Vaduz 4-1-2-1-2
  • 25L. SchaffranG
  • 4N. HaslerD
  • 6D. SimaniD
  • 5L. BerishaD
  • 7D. SchwizerD
  • 20L. MackM
  • 17J. StarkM
  • 10Juan CabreraM
  • 28M. ĆoćićM
  • 11L. DalipiF
  • 9M. MonsbergerF
Substitutes
  • 30Mattia WalkerM
  • 29M. SawadogoD
  • 27N. LangD
  • 18D. KasperF
  • 23M. HammerichM
  • 19D. DjokicF
  • 1B. BüchelG
  • 14M. BeeliD
Coach: M. Schneider
FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OmlinG
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 4B. OmeragićD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 7P. OteleM
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 11K. OlaigbeM
  • 9Ž. CelarF
Substitutes
  • 41J. DoucoureM
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 17A. MaloudaF
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 37G. KolotoF
Coach: S. Jokanović

Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

FC Vaduz

Super League

  • L1-2FC Thun20 September 2026

FC Basel 1893

Super League

  • L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11FC Vaduz133192429-510
7FC Basel 1893134362125-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

  • 26 March 2026FC Basel 1893 2–5 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 July 2023FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Basel 1893Friendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2021FC Vaduz 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 5 April 2021FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC VaduzSuper League
  • 12 December 2020FC Vaduz 0–2 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893

FC Vaduz

GoalsAssists

  • M. Monsberger61
  • L. Dalipi59
  • Juan Cabrera50

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Vaduz beat FC Basel 1893 3–0. The model had made a win for FC Vaduz its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marcel Monsberger 26' for FC Vaduz, Marcel Monsberger 36' for FC Vaduz, Lutfi Dalipi 68' for FC Vaduz. On expected goals it finished 3.11–0.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Vaduz a 38.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.3% after a win, 43.0% after a draw, 49.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

For FC Basel 1893 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.7% going in: 34.1% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.7%, 6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Vaduz v FC Basel 1893 has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 24% / 30%: the biggest move is FC Vaduz's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FC Vaduz win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. FC Basel 1893 win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.