FC Vaduz
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Vaduz 2–1 FC Basel 1893
The model makes it 42% FC Vaduz, 26% draw, 32% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Vaduz 2.11, FC Basel 1893 1.69.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Vaduz at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893
FC Vaduz
- L1-2FC Thun20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich13 September 2026
- W3-1Lausanne5 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Luzern2 September 2026
- W5-2Grasshoppers30 August 2026
FC Basel 1893
- L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
- L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Vaduz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Vaduz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Vaduz had three goals or more.
- FC Basel 1893 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Basel 1893 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893
- 26 March 2026FC Basel 1893 2–5 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 8 July 2023FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Basel 1893Friendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2021FC Vaduz 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 5 April 2021FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC VaduzSuper League
- 12 December 2020FC Vaduz 0–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 20 September 2020FC Basel 1893 2–2 FC VaduzSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893
FC Vaduz
- M. Monsberger4 goals1 assists
- Juan Cabrera4 goals
- L. Dalipi3 goals8 assists
FC Basel 1893
- Ž. Celar6 goals1 assists
- A. Sow3 goals4 assists
- X. Shaqiri3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Vaduz carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.45 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for FC Vaduz and 1.69 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Vaduz rate 0.78 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.66 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Basel 1893, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Vaduz a 0% chance of the title and FC Basel 1893 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vaduz the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for FC Vaduz against 1.69 for FC Basel 1893. FC Vaduz's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.46 for FC Basel 1893.