Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Union Santa Fe, 26% draw, 29% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 15J. PintadoD
- 2M. RodriguezD
- 26J. LuduenaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 22B. CuelloM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 5L. MenossiM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 40L. MeuliG
- 4M. RochaD
- 12B. PittonD
- 44T. FagioliD
- 32N. GarciaD
- 29S. VeraM
- 46S. GrellaM
- 10I. MalcorraM
- 34M. PeresuttiM
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuarezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16M. MartinezM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 24J. HerreraF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 77N. PasquiniD
- 20U. GimenezD
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 33G. DiazD
- 29T. SantamariaD
- 23E. GimenezM
- 17A. NadruzM
- 5M. GarciaM
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin
Union Santa Fe
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
- L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
Sarmiento Junin
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin
- 26 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–3 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 September 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 March 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 October 2023Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 15 May 2023Union Santa Fe 0–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 September 2022Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Sarmiento Junin
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assist
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel13 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.