Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aston Villa, 30% draw, 29% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 5T. MingsD
- 40M. BizotG
- 26M. SelsG
- 34O. AinaD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 19L. DelapF
- 9C. WoodF
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 12JohnG
- 25L. NetzD
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 22R. YatesM
- 11Igor JesusF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
What these results say
- Aston Villa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- 7 May 2026Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
- 30 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
- 12 April 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 3 January 2026Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 April 2025Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson40
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nottingham Forest won 2–1 at Aston Villa. The model had leaned towards a win for Aston Villa at 41% and given a win for Nottingham Forest 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Liam Delap 46' for Nottingham Forest, Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 74' for Aston Villa, Igor Jesus 88' for Nottingham Forest.
How the call on Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Nottingham Forest's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Aston Villa win41%=
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Nottingham Forest win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.