FC Lugano vs FC Zurich Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 5-0 FC Zurich.
Before kick-off the model made it 78% FC Lugano, 12% draw, 10% FC Zurich — fair odds of 1.28, 8.33 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 3Hannes DelcroixD
- 46Mattia ZanottiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 14Ahmed KendouciM
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 18Joel BichselD
- 23Gjan AjdinM
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 13Heinz LindnerG
- 3Selmin HodzaD
- 2Lindrit KamberiD
- 27Ilan SauterD
- 43Neil VolkenD
- 21Leandro SchödlerM
- 7Bledian KrasniqiM
- 8Livano ComenenciaM
- 23Valon BerishaM
- 11Umeh EmmanuelM
- 19Philippe KenyF
- 17Kevin SpadanudaM
- 9Juan José PereaF
- 18Mohamed BangouraM
- 14Nevio Di GiustoM
- 60Tyrese PinthusG
- 42Alexander HackD
- 44Sebastian WalkerD
- 38Miguel ReichmuthM
- 49Din RamicF
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
FC Lugano
All competitions we cover
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
- W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026
FC Zurich
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Servette FC1 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen26 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
- 11 April 2026FC Zurich 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 17 December 2025FC Zurich 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 18 October 2025FC Lugano 1–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 2 March 2025FC Lugano 0–3 FC ZurichSuper League
- 24 November 2024FC Lugano 4–1 FC ZurichSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Zurich
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- Daniel Dos Santos51
- D. Moncada51
- Y. Cimignani40
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel63
- P. Keny61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano beat FC Zurich 5–0. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 78%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: Kevin Behrens 16' for FC Lugano, Kevin Behrens 34' for FC Lugano, Renato Steffen 52' for FC Lugano, Daniel Dos Santos 79' for FC Lugano, Dereck Moncada 89' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 2.46–0.96.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.