FC Basel 1893
vs
FC Thun
The model makes it 66% FC Basel 1893, 20% draw, 14% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Basel 1893 2.24, FC Thun 0.94.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Basel 1893
- L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026
FC Thun
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Thun | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun
- 2 May 2026FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 18 April 2026FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 1 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC Thun 1–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 11 January 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
- 27 June 2021FC Basel 1893 2–3 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
FC Basel 1893
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Thun
- M. Gutbub1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Basel 1893 carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.33 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Basel 1893 W-L; FC Thun W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.94 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Basel 1893 rate 0.67 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.62 and 1.77.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Basel 1893 the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 against 0.94 for FC Thun. FC Basel 1893's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.77 for FC Thun.