9 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Full time4 – 2

Final score: FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% FC Basel 1893, 20% draw, 14% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Basel 1893 at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Basel 189399%Draw1%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Asane Sowassist: Kazeem Olaigbe
4'
⚽Asane Sowassist: Leo Leroy
31'
38'
Nils Reichmuth
46'
🔁Simon Lengenout: Marc Gutbub
46'
🔁Nassim Zoukitout: Justin Roth
⚽Žan Celarassist: Asane Sow
53'
54'
🔁Nils Reichmuthout: Nico Maier
🔁Ludwig Thorellout: Xherdan Shaqiri
60'
🔁Kazeem Olaigbeout: Philip Otele
60'
61'
Fabio Fehr
67'
🔁Fabio Fehrout: Michael Heule
73'
⚽Layton Stewartassist: Marc Gutbub
74'
🔁Layton Stewartout: Brighton Labeau
⚽Xherdan Shaqiriassist: Asane Sow
75'
🔁Žan Celarout: Giacomo Koloto
75'
Leo Leroy
88'
🔁Moussa Cisséout: Nicolas Vouilloz
89'
🔁Bećir Omeragićout: Jonas Harder
89'
90+1'
⚽Brighton Labeauassist: Dorian Derbaci
90+2'
Justin Roth

Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun

47%Possession53%
11Shots13
7On target2
1Corners5
1.07xG0.64

Goals against chances

FC Basel 18934 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Thun2 from 0.64 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Basel 1893
  • 13Mirko SalviG
  • 6Keigo TsunemotoD
  • 24Flavius DaniliucD
  • 55Akpe VictoryD
  • 29Moussa CisséD
  • 22Leo LeroyM
  • 4Bećir OmeragićM
  • 8Ludwig ThorellM
  • 18Asane SowF
  • 9Žan CelarF
  • 11Kazeem OlaigbeF
Substitutes
  • 10Xherdan ShaqiriM
  • 7Philip OteleF
  • 37Giacomo KolotoF
  • 3Nicolas VouillozD
  • 44Jonas HarderM
  • 49Renato Widmer D'AutiliaG
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 14Andrej BačaninM
  • 23Albian AjetiF
Coach: Stephan Lichtsteiner
FC Thun
  • 1Niklas SteffenG
  • 37Lucien DählerD
  • 5Nicolas BürgyD
  • 19Jan BamertD
  • 47Fabio FehrD
  • 70Nils ReichmuthM
  • 8Fabio SaizM
  • 13Nassim ZoukitM
  • 21Dorian DerbaciM
  • 11Layton StewartF
  • 80Simon LengenF
Substitutes
  • 16Justin RothM
  • 33Marc GutbubF
  • 30Nico MaierM
  • 27Michael HeuleD
  • 96Brighton LabeauF
  • 25Tim SpycherG
  • 17Ashvin BalarubanD
  • 78Valmir MatoshiM
  • 52Adam IlicM
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun

FC Basel 1893

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
  • L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026

What these results say

  • FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Basel 1893134362125-415
8FC Thun134272737-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun

  • 2 May 2026FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 18 April 2026FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 1 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 13 September 2025FC Thun 1–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 11 January 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar82

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 4–2. The model had made a win for FC Basel 1893 its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Asane Sow 4' for FC Basel 1893, Asane Sow 31' for FC Basel 1893, Žan Celar 53' for FC Basel 1893, Layton Stewart 73' for FC Thun, Xherdan Shaqiri 75' for FC Basel 1893, Brighton Labeau 90+1' for FC Thun. On expected goals it finished 1.07–0.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.