Ujpest
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
The model makes it 30% Ujpest, 24% draw, 46% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ujpest 1.44, MTK Budapest 1.81.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ujpest
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
MTK Budapest
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
- D3-3away to Budapest Honved1 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ujpest | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ujpest
- E. Amenyido2 goals3 assists
- K. Horváth2 goals1 assists
- A. Matko2 goals
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.38 for MTK Budapest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ujpest L-W-W; MTK Budapest W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Ujpest and 1.81 for MTK Budapest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.55 in attack and 2.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MTK Budapest rate 0.53 and 1.39.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ujpest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ujpest against 1.81 for MTK Budapest. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.39 for MTK Budapest.