Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 CSKA Moscow
The model makes it 39% Dinamo Makhachkala, 28% draw, 33% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.58, CSKA Moscow 1.38.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dinamo Makhachkala wins, grey are draws, red are CSKA Moscow wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Makhachkala at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
- W4-1away to Krylia Sovetov16 August 2026
CSKA Moscow
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
- W1-0Fakel15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow
- 21 March 2026CSKA Moscow 3–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 26 November 2025CSKA Moscow 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 8 November 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 5 November 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 29 March 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 19 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov4 goals
- N. Glushkov2 goals2 assists
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- L. Gondou2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Makhachkala carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.31 for CSKA Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.38 for CSKA Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.56 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Moscow rate 0.59 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Moscow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 2.4% chance of the title and CSKA Moscow 8.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.38 for CSKA Moscow. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.73 for CSKA Moscow.