FC Rostov
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Rostov 2–1 Akron
The model makes it 42% FC Rostov, 28% draw, 30% Akron — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.72, Akron 1.28.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Rostov vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Rostov at 42% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Rostov vs Akron
FC Rostov
- L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
Akron
- W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
- D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
- L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Rostov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Rostov had three goals or more.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Akron | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Akron
- 4 August 2026Akron 0–4 FC RostovCup
- 11 May 2026Akron 1–3 FC RostovPremier League
- 1 November 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronPremier League
- 31 March 2025Akron 2–3 FC RostovPremier League
- 18 February 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2024FC Rostov 0–2 AkronPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Akron
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Akron
- Gilson Benchimol4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Rostov carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.1 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for FC Rostov and 1.28 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Rostov rate 0.46 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.53 and 2.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Rostov the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.28 for Akron. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.42 for Akron.