FC Rostov vs Akron Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Rostov 1-0 Akron.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Rostov, 26% draw, 29% Akron — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Rostov at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Rostov vs Akron
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 84A. PetrovG
- 4V. MelekhinD
- 3O. SakoD
- 40Ygor NogueiraD
- 87A. LangovichD
- 8A. MironovM
- 27D. ProkhinM
- 18K. KuchaevM
- 10I. KomarovF
- 99T. SuleymanovF
- 6O. OlusegunF
- 73Imran AznaurovF
- 78D. ChistyakovD
- 34D. GolikovG
- 26D. KhlusevichD
- 59N. BabakinD
- 5Y. MikhaylovM
- 16M. MukhinM
- 7RonaldoF
- 22D. SemenchukD
- 88V. GudievG
- 13V. BardybakhinD
- 26João EscovalD
- 19M. BokoevD
- 21R. FernándezD
- 6K. HovhannisyanM
- 8K. BistrovićM
- 15S. LončarM
- 11DuduF
- 9S. TedićF
- 7Gilson BenchimolF
- 91M. BoldyrevM
- 5Aleksa Đurasović IM
- 69A. DmitrievF
- 80K. KhosonovM
- 24I. NedelcearuD
- 89D. PopenkovM
- 2Y. RochaD
- 99A. ShumanskiyF
- 32I. TerekhovskiyG
Form going into FC Rostov vs Akron
FC Rostov
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
Akron
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
- D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
- L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Rostov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Rostov had three goals or more.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Rostov | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Akron | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Akron
- 4 August 2026Akron 0–4 FC RostovCup
- 11 May 2026Akron 1–3 FC RostovPremier League
- 1 November 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronPremier League
- 31 March 2025Akron 2–3 FC RostovPremier League
- 18 February 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2024FC Rostov 0–2 AkronPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Akron
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Akron
GoalsAssists
- Gilson Benchimol42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Rostov beat Akron 1–0. The model had made a win for FC Rostov its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Ivan Komarov 45+2' for FC Rostov. On expected goals it finished 0.49–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Rostov a 31.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.0% after a win, 32.5% after a draw, 41.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.0%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.
For Akron the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.9% going in: 42.6% after a win, 51.4% after a draw, 59.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.1%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Rostov v Akron has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is FC Rostov's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- FC Rostov win45%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Akron win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.