West Ham vs QPR Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 1-1 QPR.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% West Ham, 25% draw, 19% QPR — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs QPR
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 23A. AreolaG
- 35E. AustböF
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 27S. MagassaM
- 61L. OrfordM
- 19PabloF
- 9J. PiroeF
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 12B. KemperD
- 24N. MadsenM
- 5R. EdwardsM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 17K. PokuF
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
- 11P. SmythF
- 22R. KoneF
- 48T. LampteyD
- 27A. MbengueD
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
- 20H. ValeM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 13C. WardG
- 33Leon ScarlettF
Form going into West Ham vs QPR
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
QPR
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
- L0-1Middlesbrough5 September 2026
- W2-1Cardiff2 September 2026
What these results say
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Ham had three goals or more.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs QPR
- 11 January 2026West Ham 2–1 QPRFA Cup
- 25 April 2015QPR 0–0 West HamPremier League
- 5 October 2014West Ham 2–0 QPRPremier League
- 19 January 2013West Ham 1–1 QPRPremier League
- 1 October 2012QPR 1–2 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: West Ham and QPR
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Ham and QPR drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 56% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Madsen (penalty) 18' for QPR, Jarrod Bowen 70' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Ham a 70.3% chance to finish in the top four: 73.5% after a win, 67.8% after a draw, 62.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 67.8%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For QPR the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.9% going in: 5.1% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.1%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on West Ham v QPR has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is West Ham's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- West Ham win56%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- QPR win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.