West Ham
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Ham 2–0 QPR
The model makes it 51% West Ham, 27% draw, 22% QPR — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: West Ham 1.92, QPR 0.88.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: West Ham vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 51% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into West Ham vs QPR
West Ham
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
QPR
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
- L0-1Middlesbrough5 September 2026
- W2-1Cardiff2 September 2026
What these results say
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Ham had three goals or more.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs QPR
- 11 January 2026West Ham 2–1 QPRFA Cup
- 25 April 2015QPR 0–0 West HamPremier League
- 5 October 2014West Ham 2–0 QPRPremier League
- 19 January 2013West Ham 1–1 QPRPremier League
- 1 October 2012QPR 1–2 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: West Ham and QPR
West Ham
- J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
- K. Mavropanos4 goals
- M. Kanté3 goals
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
West Ham carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.51 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for West Ham and 0.88 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Ham rate 0.93 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.69 and 1.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Ham a 15.4% chance of the title and QPR 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for West Ham against 0.88 for QPR. West Ham's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.37 for QPR.