8 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Full time1 – 0

Final score: AEK Athens FC 1-0 Lask Linz.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% AEK Athens FC, 26% draw, 20% Lask Linz — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC97%Draw3%Lask Linz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Marin
21'
Luka Jović
40'
42'
Melayro Bogarde
•Luka Jović
65'
65'
🔁K. P. Molgaard Jorgensenout: F. Flecker
65'
🔁R. Ljubicicout: A. Schopf
74'
🔁C. Langout: S. Kalajdzic
80'
Andrés Andrade
🔁L. Jovicout: Zini
82'
🔁A. Koitaout: M. Gacinovic
90+1'
🔁L. Majerout: K. Arriaga
90+1'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz

49%Possession51%
18Shots11
4On target3
7Corners3
1.71xG0.72

Goals against chances

AEK Athens FC1 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Lask Linz0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44F. RelvasD
  • 3S. PilioD
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 27M. VitalisM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 11A. KoitaM
  • 19B. VargaF
  • 9L. JovicF
Substitutes
  • 41M. BalamotisG
  • 21D. VidaD
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 8M. GacinovicM
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 23Joao MarioM
  • 6K. KairinenM
  • 10O. ZubkovM
Coach: Marko Nikolic
Lask Linz 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 43J. TornichD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 6M. BogardeM
  • 20K. P. Molgaard JorgensenM
  • 10R. LjubicicM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 2G. BelloM
  • 8M. UsorF
  • 27C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 33T. SchutzenauerG
  • 50F. SchillingerG
  • 25Y. DibangoD
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 21M. Verhaeghe
  • 29F. FleckerF
  • 9K. DanekM
  • 18A. SchopfM
  • 23D. ElfadliM
Coach: Dietmar Kuhbauer

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz

AEK Athens FC

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
  • W4-0Levski Sofia26 August 2026
  • W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Levski Sofia18 August 2026

Lask Linz

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
  • W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
  • W5-1Celtic25 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Celtic19 August 2026
  • W4-1Ried14 August 2026

What these results say

  • AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
  • Lask Linz won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
29AEK Athens FC310238-53
24Lask Linz310269-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Lask Linz

AEK Athens FC

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Lask Linz

GoalsAssists

  • F. Flecker30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AEK Athens FC beat Lask Linz 1–0. The model had made a win for AEK Athens FC its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: R. Marin 21' for AEK Athens FC. On expected goals it finished 1.71–0.72.

How the call on AEK Athens FC v Lask Linz has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is AEK Athens FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. AEK Athens FC win54%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Lask Linz win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.