Universitatea Craiova
vs
Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 42% Universitatea Craiova, 31% draw, 27% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.18, Arges Pitesti 0.89.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Universitatea Craiova
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Arges Pitesti
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 | Arges Pitesti | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
- 27 April 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 13 March 2026Universitatea Craiova 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 21 November 2025Arges Pitesti 1–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 18 July 2025Universitatea Craiova 3–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 22 March 2025Universitatea Craiova 4–3 Arges PitestiFriendlies Clubs
- 1 March 2023Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers
Universitatea Craiova
No league goals recorded yet.
Arges Pitesti
- R. Moldoveanu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.58 for Arges Pitesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Universitatea Craiova W-L-W; Arges Pitesti L-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.89 for Arges Pitesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.59 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arges Pitesti rate 0.59 and 1.06.
That points to 34% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.89 for Arges Pitesti. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.06 for Arges Pitesti.