Budapest Honved
vs
Vasas
NB I prediction
The model makes it 12% Budapest Honved, 19% draw, 69% Vasas — fair odds of 8.33, 5.26 and 1.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Budapest Honved 0.85, Vasas 2.29.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Budapest Honved
- D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
- D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Kisvarda FC25 July 2026
Vasas
- W5-0Zalaegerszegi TE8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Ferencvarosi TC2 August 2026
- D2-2Gyori ETO FC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Vasas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.99 for Vasas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Budapest Honved D-D-D; Vasas D-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Budapest Honved and 2.29 for Vasas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Budapest Honved rate 0.53 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasas rate 1.13 and 0.85.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 2.29 for Vasas. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.85 for Vasas.