FC Lugano
vs
Servette FC
Super League prediction
The model makes it 53% FC Lugano, 21% draw, 26% Servette FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.33, Servette FC 1.63.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Lugano
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
Servette FC
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs Servette FC
- 11 February 2026FC Lugano 1–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 14 December 2025FC Lugano 4–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 26 October 2025Servette FC 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 15 May 2025Servette FC 4–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 29 March 2025FC Lugano 0–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 1 December 2024Servette FC 3–0 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers
FC Lugano
- K. Behrens2 goals1 assists
- D. Moncada2 goals
- Y. Cimignani2 goals
Servette FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.59 for Servette FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Lugano W-W-W; Servette FC L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for FC Lugano and 1.63 for Servette FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 0.94 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Servette FC rate 0.78 and 1.31.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for FC Lugano against 1.63 for Servette FC. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.31 for Servette FC.