FC Lugano vs Servette FC Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 1-0 Servette FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Lugano, 28% draw, 30% Servette FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs Servette FC
Line-ups
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 4D. KelvinD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 25U. BislimiM
- 2B. KarimovM
- 14A. KendouciM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenF
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 46M. ZanottiD
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 17L. MaiD
- 8A. GrgićM
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 22B. CastroF
- 18J. BichselD
- 23G. AjdinM
- 9A. AjetiF
- 1E. GertmonasG
- 23Q. MaceirasD
- 4S. RouillerD
- 15M. BurchD
- 18B. MazikouD
- 8T. CognatM
- 6Pedro NaressiM
- 77T. OuattaraM
- 9M. StevanovićM
- 14L. NjohM
- 90S. MrázF
- 20Jarell Njike SimoM
- 34T. AllixD
- 37Sylvain Claude Djoho FilhoD
- 28D. DoulineM
- 27David Datro FofanaF
- 36Thomas LopesM
- 17Houboulang MendesD
- 7K. MutandwaF
- 44Louis RiederG
Form going into FC Lugano vs Servette FC
FC Lugano
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
Servette FC
- D1-1FC Luzern29 August 2026
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Servette FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Servette FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Servette FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 25 |
| 8 | Servette FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs Servette FC
- 3 September 2026FC Lugano 1–0 Servette FCSuper League
- 11 February 2026FC Lugano 1–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 14 December 2025FC Lugano 4–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 26 October 2025Servette FC 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 15 May 2025Servette FC 4–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 29 March 2025FC Lugano 0–2 Servette FCSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Servette FC
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assist
- H. Delcroix3 goals1 assist
Servette FC
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.