FC Thun
vs
Lausanne
Super League prediction
The model makes it 38% FC Thun, 26% draw, 36% Lausanne — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.51, Lausanne 1.46.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Lausanne
- D2-2BSC Young Boys8 August 2026
- W1-0away to FC Basel 18931 August 2026
- D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Lausanne
- 12 February 2026FC Thun 5–1 LausanneSuper League
- 30 November 2025Lausanne 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 3 August 2025FC Thun 2–1 LausanneSuper League
- 20 March 2025Lausanne 2–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
- 5 January 2025Lausanne 3–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2023FC Thun 3–3 LausanneChallenge League
Leading scorers
FC Thun
No league goals recorded yet.
Lausanne
- F. Mollet2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.48 for Lausanne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Thun W-L-L; Lausanne D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for FC Thun and 1.46 for Lausanne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.63 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lausanne rate 0.60 and 1.27.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lausanne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.46 for Lausanne. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.27 for Lausanne.