FC Luzern
vs
FC Vaduz
Super League prediction
The model makes it 45% FC Luzern, 22% draw, 33% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 2.22, 4.55 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 2.10, FC Vaduz 1.79.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Luzern
- D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
FC Vaduz
- L2-3away to FC Sion9 August 2026
- L2-3FC St. Gallen2 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Lugano26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz
- 6 September 2024FC Vaduz 1–0 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
- 2 July 2022FC Luzern 4–1 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2021FC Vaduz 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 24 February 2021FC Vaduz 1–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 14 February 2021FC Luzern 4–0 FC VaduzSuper League
- 21 November 2020FC Luzern 1–1 FC VaduzSuper League
Leading scorers
FC Luzern
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Vaduz
- M. Monsberger2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Luzern carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.44 for FC Vaduz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Luzern L-L-D; FC Vaduz L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for FC Luzern and 1.79 for FC Vaduz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Luzern rate 0.66 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Vaduz rate 0.73 and 1.68.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Luzern the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for FC Luzern against 1.79 for FC Vaduz. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.68 for FC Vaduz.