Hibernian
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 39% Hibernian, 27% draw, 34% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.36, Heart of Midlothian 1.25.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hibernian
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
- L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian
- 26 April 2026Hibernian 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 10 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 27 December 2025Hibernian 3–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 2 March 2025Hibernian 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 December 2024Heart of Midlothian 1–2 HibernianPremiership
Leading scorers
Hibernian
No league goals recorded yet.
Heart of Midlothian
- Cláudio Braga1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.33 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hibernian L-W; Heart of Midlothian L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Hibernian and 1.25 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 and 1.44.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heart of Midlothian, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.25 for Heart of Midlothian. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.44 for Heart of Midlothian.