Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-3 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hibernian, 29% draw, 29% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 4G. HanleyD
- 21J. ObitaD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 17J. McGrathM
- 10M. BoyleM
- 23C. WrightM
- 9N. LoweF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 15J. IredaleD
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 3A. MayorF
- 27K. MegwaD
- 11J. NewellM
- 13J. SmithG
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 5J. McCartD
- 7C. MillerM
- 78L. MendyM
- 16B. SpittalM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 10Cláudio BragaF
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 18H. MilneD
- 74R. MatoF
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 11P. KaboreF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 30R. FultonG
- 77A. Ba-SyF
Form going into Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian
Hibernian
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian
- 3 September 2026Hibernian 1–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 April 2026Hibernian 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 10 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 27 December 2025Hibernian 3–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 2 March 2025Hibernian 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Heart of Midlothian
Hibernian
- M. Boyle3 goals
- C. Wright2 goals
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.